Affiliate & KOL ROI Monitor
You replace manual commission runs, order-to-creator matching, and influencer performance reporting with a repeatable workflow: attribution data → net of refunds → profit-aware economics → tiered renewals.
Core workflow (always follow in order)
- 1. Extract attribution data — Map each order (or session) to a creator: discount codes, UTM (
utm_source, utm_medium, utm_campaign), affiliate platform IDs, first-touch / last-touch rules. State the rule you use. - Exclude refund / chargeback orders — Remove or weight down refunded revenue and reversed commissions for the reporting window. Call out partial refunds.
- Compute actual profit (where inputs allow) — Revenue net of refunds × margin (or COGS) minus creator cost (fixed fee + variable commission) = contribution per creator. If margin unknown, show revenue net of refunds and CAC using payout as cost.
- Tiered renewal proposals — Rate each creator; propose continue / renegotiate / pause with concrete terms (rate, cap, exclusivity, content minimums).
When NOT to use
- - No order or payout data — only branding or follower counts.
- Single creator, no reconciliation — simple contract review only.
- Paid ads (Meta/Google) without affiliate linkage — use ads ROAS skills.
Gather context (infer first; ask gaps)
- 1. Platform: Shopify, WooCommerce, Impact, ShareASale, custom spreadsheet?
- Attribution: code-only, UTM-only, or hybrid; window (e.g. 7-day click).
- Commission model: % of sale, flat per order, hybrid, tiered by volume.
- Refund policy: full window for affiliate eligibility; chargebacks.
- Gross margin or COGS % (or confirm "use payout as CAC proxy").
- Renewal date or campaign end.
For fraud heuristics and renewal rubric detail, read references/affiliate_playbook.md when needed.
Mandatory success output: master table
Every full affiliate reconciliation or ROI report must include this table (one row per creator; use Influencer ID as the stable key — handle, platform ID, or internal code):
| Influencer ID | Orders attributed | Actual revenue | CAC | Renewal rating |
|---|
| … | … | … | … | … |
Column definitions
- - Influencer ID: Stable identifier (agree with merchant).
- Orders attributed: Count of orders matched to this creator in the window, after refund/chargeback exclusion (state rule).
- Actual revenue: Net revenue attributable to that creator (gross order value minus refunds for attributed orders), same currency.
- CAC: Customer acquisition cost for that creator’s attributed sales — typically
(fixed fees + variable commissions + product/samples allocated) divided by new customers or by attributed orders; if only payout is known, define CAC as total creator cost / attributed orders and label it clearly. - Renewal rating: Tier such as A (renew strong), B (renew with caps), C (renegotiate or shorten), D (pause / investigate fraud) — always tie to numbers (conversion, refund rate, traffic quality).
Below the table, add: ROAS proxy (revenue / creator cost), fraud or quality flags if any, and renewal terms per tier.
Pushy deliverables (when user asks vaguely)
If they ask "who should we keep" or "affiliate ROI" without structure, still output: the master table, attribution rule summary, refund-adjusted figures, and at least two renewal scenarios (e.g. same rate vs reduced rate + cap).
Report outline (full run)
- 1. Scope — date range, attribution rule, currency.
- Master table — required columns above.
- Refund / chargeback impact — table or bullets per creator if material.
- Profit or contribution — formula stated; margin assumptions if used.
- Fraud / low-quality signals — spikes, refund rate, session quality (if data exists).
- Renewal playbook — A/B/C/D actions and suggested contract language bullets.
Split with other skills
- - Paid social ads without affiliates → not this skill.
- Legal contracts → flag for counsel; you provide economic summary only.
联盟营销与KOL投资回报率监控
您用可重复的工作流程取代手动佣金结算、订单与创作者匹配以及达人效果报告：归因数据 → 扣除退款 → 利润感知经济分析 → 分层续约。
核心工作流程（请始终按顺序执行）
- 1. 提取归因数据 — 将每个订单（或会话）映射到创作者：折扣码、UTM参数（utmsource、utmmedium、utm_campaign）、联盟平台ID、首次触达/末次触达规则。说明您使用的规则。
- 排除退款/拒付订单 — 移除或加权扣除报告周期内的退款收入和撤销的佣金。标注部分退款情况。
- 计算实际利润（在数据允许的情况下） — 扣除退款后的收入 × 利润率（或销售成本）减去创作者成本（固定费用 + 可变佣金）= 每位创作者的贡献值。如果利润率未知，则使用支出作为成本来展示扣除退款后的收入和客户获取成本。
- 分层续约建议 — 对每位创作者进行评级；提出继续/重新谈判/暂停的建议，并附上具体条款（费率、上限、独家性、内容最低要求）。
不适用场景
- - 没有订单或支出数据 — 仅有品牌或粉丝数量。
- 单一创作者，无需对账 — 仅需简单的合同审查。
- 付费广告（Meta/谷歌）无联盟链接 — 请使用广告ROAS技能。
收集背景信息（先推断；再询问缺失项）
- 1. 平台：Shopify、WooCommerce、Impact、ShareASale、自定义电子表格？
- 归因方式：仅代码、仅UTM、混合模式；归因窗口（例如7天点击）。
- 佣金模式：销售额百分比、每单固定金额、混合模式、按量分层。
- 退款政策：联盟资格的全额退款窗口；拒付情况。
- 毛利率或销售成本百分比（或确认使用支出作为客户获取成本代理）。
- 续约日期或活动结束时间。
如需欺诈检测启发式规则和续约评分细则，请根据需要查阅references/affiliate_playbook.md。
强制性成功输出：主表格
每次完整的联盟对账或投资回报率报告必须包含此表格（每位创作者一行；使用达人ID作为稳定键——可以是账号、平台ID或内部代码）：
| 达人ID | 归因订单数 | 实际收入 | 客户获取成本 | 续约评级 |
|---|
| … | … | … | … | … |
列定义
- - 达人ID：稳定标识符（与商家协商一致）。
- 归因订单数：在归因窗口内匹配到该创作者的订单数量，扣除退款/拒付后（说明规则）。
- 实际收入：归属于该创作者的净收入（归因订单的总订单价值减去退款），使用相同货币。
- 客户获取成本：该创作者归因销售的客户获取成本 — 通常为（固定费用 + 可变佣金 + 分配的产品/样品成本）除以新客户数或归因订单数；如果仅知道支出，则将客户获取成本定义为创作者总成本 / 归因订单数，并清晰标注。
- 续约评级：分层评级，如A（强力续约）、B（带上限续约）、C（重新谈判或缩短期限）、D（暂停/调查欺诈） — 始终与数据挂钩（转化率、退款率、流量质量）。
在表格下方，添加：ROAS代理指标（收入/创作者成本）、欺诈或质量标记（如有），以及各层级续约条款。
主动交付物（当用户模糊提问时）
如果用户问我们应该保留谁或联盟ROI而没有明确结构，仍需输出：主表格、归因规则摘要、退款调整后的数据，以及至少两个续约方案（例如相同费率 vs 降低费率加上限）。
报告大纲（完整版）
- 1. 范围 — 日期范围、归因规则、货币。
- 主表格 — 上述必填列。
- 退款/拒付影响 — 按创作者列出表格或要点（如影响重大）。
- 利润或贡献 — 说明计算公式；如使用利润率假设需注明。
- 欺诈/低质量信号 — 异常峰值、退款率、会话质量（如有数据）。
- 续约操作手册 — A/B/C/D级行动方案及建议的合同语言要点。
与其他技能的区分
- - 付费社交媒体广告（无联盟关联）→ 不适用本技能。
- 法律合同 → 标记为需法务审核；您仅提供经济摘要。
