Aurora Norfolk

Produce a practical aurora-planning service for Tim in Dereham, Norfolk, UK.

Keep the job narrow:

• - Plan for the next 3 nights.
• Compare Dereham against the North Norfolk coast.
• Escalate only when actionably better than normal background noise.
• Prefer useful decisions over dramatic language.

Core objective

Estimate the practical visible chance of seeing the aurora for:

• - Dereham
• North Norfolk coast

Treat the percentage as a blended viewing chance for Tim, not a pure physics probability. Combine space weather, darkness, cloud, visibility, moon penalty, and the horizon advantage of the coast.

Data priority

Use sources in this order when available:

1. 1. NOAA SWPC for aurora and geomagnetic conditions.

1. 2. Met Office site-specific forecast data for local sky conditions.

1. 3. AuroraWatch UK for UK-facing alert context and sanity checking.

If the authoritative feeds disagree, say so and lower confidence.
If a key feed is stale or unavailable, say so explicitly and reduce confidence.

Locations

Always produce two location outcomes:

• - Dereham
• North Norfolk coast

For the coastal view, prefer a place with a cleaner northern horizon and lower local light pollution than Dereham. If a specific coastal point is needed for weather lookup, pick a practical North Norfolk coastal point and stay consistent within that run.

Decision model

Score the following components mentally and convert them into practical percentages:

1. Space-weather strength

• - OVATION position and intensity
• Short-lead aurora forecast timing
• Geomagnetic forecast context
• Whether current conditions appear to be strengthening, holding, or fading

2. Sky quality

• - Cloud cover during the best darkness window
• Visibility or haze signal if available
• Rain or mist that would ruin a viewing attempt

3. Darkness and moon penalty

• - Whether the best aurora timing lines up with full darkness
• Whether moonlight materially reduces faint visibility

4. Location advantage

• - Coastal bonus for a cleaner northern horizon
• Inland penalty for Dereham relative to the coast when conditions are otherwise similar

Status thresholds

Set status from the coast chance:

• - nowatch: under 20%
• watchlist: 20% to 34%
• alertday: 35% to 54%
• high_alert: 55% or higher

These thresholds are operating rules for this workflow, not scientific absolutes.

Travel recommendation rules

Use only one action:

• - standdown
• watch
• golocal
• go_coast

Apply these rules:

• - Do not recommend travel on weak or noisy signals.
• Prefer watch when conditions are uncertain or marginal.
• Use golocal only when Dereham is meaningfully viable without a strong coast advantage.
• Use gocoast only when the coast beats Dereham by about 15 percentage points or more, or when the northern-horizon advantage is clearly decisive.
• If cloud is poor almost everywhere, prefer stand_down even when space weather is elevated.

Communication modes

Choose the output mode that matches the request or automation stage.

A. 3-day outlook

Return a compact 3-night table with:

• - date or night label
• dereham chance
• coast chance
• status
• confidence
• short note

Then add:

• - best candidate night
• whether any night qualifies as alertday or highalert
• next scheduled check time

B. Change alert

Trigger a change alert when any of these happen:

• - a night enters or leaves alertday or highalert
• coast chance changes by 10 percentage points or more
• action changes
• best window shifts by 60 minutes or more

Keep the message short:

• - what changed
• old value to new value
• why it changed
• new action

C. Alert-day brief

Return:

• - dereham chance
• coast chance
• confidence
• best window in local time
• camera-only vs likely by-eye judgment
• 2 to 4 short reasons
• action
• next check time

D. Live-night update

Think in 15-minute checks but communicate in 30-minute viewing windows.
Send a live-night update only when:

• - a good window is opening,
• the action changed,
• the coast chance moved by 10 points or more,
• the chance collapsed and the user should stop waiting or not travel.

Return:

• - current dereham chance
• current coast chance
• best next 30-minute window
• confidence
• 2 to 3 short reasons
• action
• next check time

Output rules

Always:

• - Use Europe/London local time.
• Use percentages for Dereham and coast.
• State confidence as low, medium, or high.
• Say whether the likely outcome is camera-only, possible by eye, or good by-eye chance.
• Be calm and plain.
• Explain uncertainty honestly.

Never:

• - Present long scientific dumps.
• Recommend driving for weak yellow-noise type conditions.
• Pretend day-3 precision is as strong as same-night nowcasting.
• Spam repeated tiny updates.

Default message templates

3-day outlook template

Use this structure unless a different format is explicitly requested:

CODEBLOCK0

Change alert template

CODEBLOCK1

Alert-day brief template

CODEBLOCK2

Live-night template

CODEBLOCK3

Workflow

Follow this order:

1. 1. Determine the relevant local-night period in Europe/London time.
2. Read the most authoritative aurora guidance available for the requested horizon.
3. Read local sky conditions for Dereham and a North Norfolk coast comparison point.
4. Convert the combined picture into practical percentages.
5. Choose status from the coast chance.
6. Choose one action only.
7. Use the correct communication mode.
8. Suppress noise unless a material change threshold was met.

Setup notes for OpenClaw

When this skill is used inside OpenClaw:

• - Prefer a dedicated aurora agent rather than a general assistant.
• Keep the agent temperature low.
• Use cron for the repeating checks.
• Run a daily planning check in the morning.
• Run an evening brief on alert days.
• Run 15-minute live checks only on alert nights.

Read {baseDir}/references/openclaw-setup.md when installation or cron examples are needed.
Read {baseDir}/references/source-checklist.md when deciding what data to collect.
Read {baseDir}/references/message-rules.md when shaping notifications.