Betting

## When to Use Betting questions involving sports, props, parlays, exchanges, or prediction-style tickets where price, edge, and stake size matter. Agent handles market normalization, implied probability math, line comparison, sizing discipline, and quick rejection of bad bets. ## Architecture Memory lives in `~/betting/`. If `~/betting/` does not exist, run `setup.md`. See `memory-template.md` for structure. ```text ~/betting/ ├── memory.md # Preferences, books, and activation rules ├── tickets.md # Active or reviewed bets and follow-ups ├── market-notes.md # Sports, books, and recurring edge notes └── archive/ # Old tickets and retired observations ``` ## Data Storage - `~/betting/memory.md` stores activation rules, preferred sports, and user-stated constraints - `~/betting/tickets.md` stores active or reviewed ticket notes when the user wants tracking - `~/betting/market-notes.md` stores recurring market observations that improve future analysis - `~/betting/archive/` stores older notes that no longer need to stay hot ## Quick Reference | Topic | File | |-------|------| | Setup guide | `setup.md` | | Memory template | `memory-template.md` | | Clean Ticket Protocol | `workflow.md` | | Market integrity checks | `market-checks.md` | | Bankroll and sizing rules | `sizing.md` | | Reusable ticket memo | `ticket-template.md` | | Fast rejection list | `red-flags.md` | ## Requirements - No account auth required - No extra binaries required - Live odds or injury news only when the user provides data or explicitly asks to fetch public information - The user is responsible for legal age, jurisdiction, operator rules, and local compliance ## Clean Ticket Protocol Use the full workflow in `workflow.md`. Every ticket should pass this order: 1. Define the exact market, book, line, price, stake, and settlement rule 2. Normalize odds and break-even probability with `sizing.md` 3. Check market integrity, limits, and void rules with `market-checks.md` 4. Run the fast rejection list in `red-flags.md` 5. Return an analysis memo using `ticket-template.md`: positive edge, reduce size, wait, or pass ## Core Rules ### 1. Price Comes Before Opinion - Convert every bet into implied probability and break-even price before discussing narratives - If the user only has a take and no number, build the number first or state that the edge is unproven ### 2. Markets Must Match Exactly - Team names, alternate lines, overtime rules, void rules, and player participation terms must refer to the same economic outcome - If two tickets settle differently, they cannot be compared as if they were the same bet ### 3. Size Last, Not First - Do not discuss stake sizing until price, edge, limits, and failure modes are clear - Use `sizing.md` to frame analytical stake ranges, capped units, or pass; default conservative when inputs are weak ### 4. Default to No Bet Under Unclear Edge - Missing injury status, stale odds, unknown limits, or hand-wavy probability estimates should end in wait or pass - Good betting analysis is often the discipline to reject action, not to force it ### 5. Parlays Need Independent Legs - Treat correlated legs, same-game parlays, and market boosts as separate risk products, not free multiplier math - If independence is unclear, label correlation risk and avoid fake expected value claims ### 6. Live Betting Needs Latency Awareness - For live markets, ask when the quote was seen, what triggered the move, and whether the book can still be hit - If latency or suspension likely invalidates the number, downgrade the ticket immediately ### 7. Output a Ticket Memo, Not Hype - End with fair price, book price, edge estimate, maximum analytical size, kill conditions, and next action - Never call a bet guaranteed, safe, lawful, or suitable for the user personally ## Legal and Responsible Use - This skill provides informational analysis only, not legal, tax, financial, licensing, or gambling-compliance advice - Do not help minors, self-excluded users, or users in prohibited jurisdictions place or access bets - Do not suggest ways around KYC, AML, geo-blocking, self-exclusion, deposit limits, or operator rules - Do not promote bonus abuse, affiliate links, referral deals, or language that frames gambling as income, investing, or debt recovery - If legality, licensing, or operator compliance is unclear, stop at general information and tell the user to check local law or licensed counsel ## Market Lens | Market Type | What to Check First | Typical Failure Mode | |-------------|---------------------|----------------------| | Side or moneyline | Closing context, overtime grading, price drift | Paying extra vig for a story everyone already knows | | Spread or handicap | Key numbers, hooks, alternate lines | Comparing different point lines as if price alone mattered | | Total | Pace, weather, lineup status, overtime rule | Using stale assumptions after lineup or weather news | | Props | Minutes, role, book limits, stat source | Tiny limits or rules that void on limited participation | | Parlays | Correlation, leg quality, hidden margin | Multiple bad prices packaged as one exciting ticket | | Exchange or prediction market | Fees, liquidity, resolution language | Calling thin or ambiguous markets "edge" | ## Common Traps | Trap | Why It Fails | Better Move | |------|--------------|-------------| | Starting with "Who wins?" | Opinion without price does not tell whether the bet is good | Ask for line and odds first | | Comparing +120 to +120 across books blindly | Rules and limits may differ | Match settlement and max stake before comparing | | Using full Kelly on shaky estimates | Small model error can blow up bankroll | Downshift to fractional Kelly or flat-unit size | | Treating promos as pure value | Hidden rollover, min odds, or stake caps distort edge | Separate hard edge from promo-only edge | | Chasing after line movement | Late price often means the value is already gone | Reprice at current odds or pass | | Ignoring correlation in parlays | Legs can move together and kill expected value | Price legs independently and label correlation risk | | Confusing entertainment with edge | Action bias hides weak numbers | Be explicit when the ticket is only for fun | ## Scope This skill ONLY: - Analyzes bets, prices, and sizing discipline - Stores user-stated preferences and notes in `~/betting/` - Uses `workflow.md`, `market-checks.md`, `sizing.md`, `ticket-template.md`, and `red-flags.md` for repeatable analysis - Identifies when the right answer is no bet, smaller size, or wait This skill NEVER: - Places bets, logs into books, or moves funds - Stores login details, wallet recovery phrases, or account recovery data - Helps bypass age, jurisdiction, KYC, AML, or self-exclusion controls - Promotes profit, certainty, or personalized financial suitability - Hides uncertainty when lines, rules, or data are incomplete ## Security & Privacy **Data that leaves your machine:** - None by default - If the user explicitly asks for live public information, only the markets, teams, players, or books needed for that request **Data that stays local:** - Preferences, tickets, and notes in `~/betting/` **This skill does NOT:** - Store login details - Read unrelated files - Make undeclared network requests ## Related Skills Install with `clawhub install <slug>` if user confirms: - `decide` - structure tradeoffs and pass-or-proceed decisions without hype - `legal` - tighten wording when the user asks about compliance, terms, or risk boundaries - `pricing` - reason about price quality when the user needs cleaner expected value language - `trader` - frame discipline, journaling, and risk control for repeated decision making ## Feedback - If useful: `clawhub star betting` - Stay updated: `clawhub sync`