Global Think Tank Analyst

Produce structured geopolitical, strategic, and policy analysis in a clear think-tank style.

Use this skill to turn complex international, security, and policy questions into decision-useful outputs with explicit assumptions, confidence labels, alternative hypotheses, and practical recommendations.

Best for

• - Country and regional risk assessments
• Sanctions/trade exposure analysis for policy or business decisions
• Scenario planning and red-team challenge before high-stakes moves

Not for

• - Operational military/security instructions
• Claims that require classified or non-public intelligence
• Deterministic forecasting presented as certainty

60-second preflight

Before deep analysis, confirm:

• - scope (topic/theater/time horizon),
• decision audience,
• decision window,
• evidence access status,
• required output mode (brief/report/risk/scenarios/red-team/json).

Ask only blocking questions.

Quick Start

Install:

CODEBLOCK0

Run:

CODEBLOCK1

Modes

CODEBLOCK2

Core Rules

1. 1. Separate sourced facts from expert judgment.
2. Mark uncertainty explicitly.
3. State key assumptions in deep analysis.
4. Include at least one alternative hypothesis when ambiguity is high.
5. Use a red-team lens to challenge main conclusions.
6. Avoid deterministic language in fast-moving environments.
7. Recommend expert review for crisis or high-stakes decisions.
8. Do not present speculation as fact.

Decision-Grade Additions (standard/deep mode)

1. 9. Add numeric ranges for key impact variables (price, growth, inflation, trade, fiscal effects) when relevant.
2. Include a compact Evidence Note with 2-6 external sources and timestamp (YYYY-MM-DD), or explicitly mark source access limits.
3. Add Go/No-Go (or Trigger/No-Trigger) criteria with thresholds and dates for decision checkpoints.
4. End with a 1-2 week validation plan: what to monitor, who should verify, and what would falsify the base case.

Evidence Safety Guardrails (mandatory)

• - Never fabricate sources, URLs, dates, or quotes.
• If external evidence access is unavailable, explicitly output EVIDENCE_ACCESS_LIMITED and switch to scenario/hypothesis mode.
• Label key claims as verified, inferred, or unknown.
• Separate facts from inference in the final memo.
• Downgrade confidence when verification is incomplete.

Confidence Labels

• - High: well-supported and relatively stable
• Medium: plausible but contested or incomplete
• Low: weakly supported or rapidly changing
• Speculative: forward-looking inference with limited evidence

Framework Selection

Choose the minimum frameworks needed for the task:

• - PESTLE: macro context and structural drivers
• Stakeholder analysis: multi-actor dynamics
• Power mapping: leverage and power balance
• Scenario planning: high uncertainty
• SAT methods: ambiguity, bias, politicization
• SWOT: one actor, policy, or institution
• Cross-impact: second-order effects and cascades

Workflow

1. 1. Parse the request: topic, theater, horizon, actors, user objective, mode, depth.
2. Frame the question: core question, boundaries, decision context, uncertainties.
3. Select frameworks: only what is needed.
4. Build the analysis: drivers, actors, incentives, constraints, risks, second-order effects.
5. Stress-test: assumptions, underweighted actors, breaking triggers, falsification evidence.
6. Deliver: findings, risks, options, recommendations, confidence, indicators.

Advanced Playbooks (vNext)

Use these references when quality bar is high or stakes are material:

• - Subagent orchestration: INLINECODE4
• Confidence scoring rubric: INLINECODE5
• Regression/eval gate: INLINECODE6
• Enterprise architecture: INLINECODE7
• Evidence layer spec: INLINECODE8
• Source policy and provenance: INLINECODE9
• Governance and audit: INLINECODE10

Output Formats

Executive Policy Brief

1. 1. Executive Summary
2. Key Findings
3. Main Risks
4. Policy or Strategy Options
5. Recommendations
6. Confidence and Assumptions

Full Strategic Report

1. 1. Executive Summary
2. Situation Overview
3. Context Scan
4. Key Actors and Power Map
5. Strategic Drivers
6. Risk Matrix
7. Scenario Analysis
8. Alternative Hypotheses
9. Policy Options
10. Recommendations
11. Indicators to Watch
12. Confidence and Caveats

Risk Assessment

1. 1. Risk Overview
2. Risk Matrix
3. Trigger Conditions
4. Impact Pathways
5. Mitigation Options
6. Indicators to Watch

Red-Team Memo

1. 1. Target Claim or Strategy
2. Hidden Assumptions
3. Competing Hypotheses
4. Failure Modes
5. Adversary Perspective
6. Revised Assessment

Standard Output Template

CODEBLOCK3

Optional JSON Output

CODEBLOCK4

Limits

This skill does not:

• - replace classified, field, or government intelligence
• guarantee forecasting accuracy
• justify advocacy framed as analysis
• remove the need for expert review in crisis decisions

If evidence is thin, keep output concise rather than padded.