hourly-momentum-trader

# Hourly Momentum Trader Directional momentum scoring for 1-hour crypto candles with Polymarket binary market integration. ## Momentum Score System (-10 to +10) Each signal contributes to the composite score: | Signal | Bullish (+) | Bearish (-) | Weight | |--------|------------|------------|--------| | RSI | <40 oversold | >70 overbought | ±1 | | RSI divergence | Bull div | Bear div | ±2 | | MACD cross | Bullish cross | Bearish cross | ±1 | | MACD histogram | Rising | Falling | ±1 | | EMA cross | EMA20>EMA50 | EMA20<EMA50 | ±1 | | EMA200 | Price above | Price below | ±1 | | Bollinger | Near lower (oversold) | Near upper (overbought) | ±1 | | OBV trend | Rising (accumulation) | Falling (distribution) | ±1 | | OBV divergence | Bull div | Bear div | ±2 | | Volume | High volume on move | Low volume | ±1 | ## Live Bet Integration (Polymarket Argus Strategy) Combine momentum score with Polymarket market odds: ```python # Edge formula our_prob = 0.50 + (momentum_score * 0.05) # score 6 = 80% confidence market_prob_up = polymarket_up_price # e.g. 0.35 (35% UP consensus) edge = our_prob - market_prob_up # e.g. 0.80 - 0.35 = 45% edge! # Bet when: # - abs(momentum_score) >= 3 # - abs(edge) >= 0.10 (10%) # - market is fresh (<30 min old) # - USDC.e balance >= $5 ``` ## Counter-Consensus Setups (L023) Highest-EV Polymarket plays: - Momentum score ≥+3 AND market DOWN >70% → **BET UP** (counter-consensus, 3-5x payout) - Momentum score ≤-3 AND market UP >70% → **BET DOWN** (counter-consensus, 3-5x payout) Example: SOL score=+4, Polymarket DOWN 80% → buy UP at 0.20 → if wins: 5x return ## Signals Output Format ```json { "asset": "BTC", "score": 3, "rsi": 64.9, "rsi_status": "neutral", "macd_hist": 10.39, "macd_direction": "rising", "obv_trend": "rising", "bb_pct": 0.72, "ema_cross": "bullish", "bias": "BULLISH", "confidence_pct": 65, "polymarket_edge": { "btc_4pm_et": { "market_up": 0.515, "our_p": 0.65, "edge": 0.135, "direction": "UP" } } } ``` ## Watchlist (Default) BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, ATOM, ADA, SUI, LTC, NEAR, AVAX, BNB, LINK, DOT, TRX, DOGE