Geopolitics & Conflict Trader

This is a template.
The default signal is keyword-based market discovery combined with conviction-based sizing and geopolitics_bias() — remix it with the data sources listed below.
The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Geopolitical markets are systematically mispriced by retail traders in two ways: they overweight dramatic, scary outcomes relative to documented conflict research base rates, and they reprice slowly when breaking news hits during Asian or European business hours while US retail is asleep. This skill corrects both without any external API.

Signal Logic

Default Signal: Conviction-Based Sizing with Geopolitical Bias

1. 1. Discover active geopolitical markets on Polymarket using conflict/diplomacy keywords
2. Compute base conviction from distance to threshold (0% at boundary → 100% at p=0/p=1)
3. Apply geopolitics_bias() — combines fear-premium correction with regional news timing
4. Size = max(MIN_TRADE, conviction × bias × MAX_POSITION) — capped at MAXPOSITION
5. Skip markets with spread > MAXSPREAD or fewer than MIN_DAYS to resolution

Geopolitics Bias (built-in, no API required)

Two compounding structural edges:

Factor 1 — Fear/Narrative Premium Correction

Retail systematically overprices dramatic, scary outcomes and underprices boring-but-likely ones. Conflict research databases (ACLED, ICG) document base rates that deviate sharply from media-driven market pricing:

Event type	Why retail misprices it	Multiplier
Nuclear / WMD use	Post-WWII base rate is near-zero; media panic inflates	0.65x
Coup / regime change

Retail overprices drama; ~50% actual success rate | 0.75x |
| Full invasion / occupation | Retail anchors to worst-case escalation | 0.80x |
| Ceasefire / peace deal / truce | Only ~40% of ceasefires hold within 6 months | 0.80x |
| Sanctions / embargo | ~30–40% achieve stated objectives; overestimated | 0.85x |
| UN vote / Security Council | P5 veto patterns are well-documented; procedural | 1.10x |
| Diplomatic breakthrough | Boring — retail consistently underprices it | 1.15x |

Factor 2 — Regional News Timing Window

Polymarket is US-dominated. Markets take 15–45 min to reprice events that break during Asian or European business hours when US retail is asleep:

Region	Active window (UTC)	Multiplier	Rationale
Asia/Pacific (China, Taiwan, NK, Japan)	00:00–08:00	1.20x	US asleep, repricing lag open
Asia/Pacific

13:00–22:00 | 0.95x | US prime time — priced quickly |
| Europe/Middle East (Ukraine, Russia, Iran, Israel, NATO) | 06:00–14:00 | 1.15x | US just waking, partial lag |
| Europe/Middle East | 18:00–04:00 | 0.95x | Off-hours, less news flow |

Combined and capped at 1.35x. A diplomatic breakthrough (1.15x) during Asia active hours (1.20x) → 1.35x cap. A nuclear market at any time → 0.65x floor.

Keywords Monitored

CODEBLOCK0

Remix Signal Ideas

• - GDELT Project: Real-time global event database — feed event velocity into p to trade divergence between conflict data and market pricing
• ACLED conflict data: Armed conflict location and event intensity scores — use as leading indicator for escalation/de-escalation markets
• UN Security Council voting records: P5 veto pattern analysis for UN vote markets
• ICG (International Crisis Group) alerts: Early-warning signals for crisis escalation before markets react

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only with --live flag.

Scenario	Mode	Financial risk
INLINECODE6	Paper (sim)	None
Cron / automaton

Paper (sim) | None |
| python trader.py --live | Live (polymarket) | Real USDC |

INLINECODE8 and cron: null — nothing runs automatically until you configure it in Simmer UI.

Required Credentials

Variable	Required	Notes
INLINECODE10	Yes	Trading authority. Treat as high-value credential.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All declared as tunables in clawhub.json and adjustable from the Simmer UI.

Variable	Default	Purpose
INLINECODE13	INLINECODE14	Max USDC per trade (reached at 100% conviction)
INLINECODE15

20000 | Min market volume filter (USD) — geopolitical markets need liquidity |
| SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD | 0.08 | Max bid-ask spread (8%) |
| SIMMER_MIN_DAYS | 5 | Min days until resolution |
| SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS | 6 | Max concurrent open positions |
| SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD | 0.38 | Buy YES if market price ≤ this value |
| SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD | 0.62 | Sell NO if market price ≥ this value |
| SIMMER_MIN_TRADE | 5 | Floor for any trade (min USDC regardless of conviction) |

Dependency

INLINECODE29 by Simmer Markets (SpartanLabsXyz)

• - PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk