Legal & Regulatory Trader
This is a template.
The default signal is keyword-based market discovery combined with probability-extreme detection — remix it with the data sources listed in the Edge Thesis below.
The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.
Strategy Overview
Legal prediction markets have enormous information asymmetry — most Polymarket retail participants don't read court filings or understand regulatory procedure. They price criminal convictions as coin flips when the actual DOJ conviction rate is ~97%. This skill encodes documented institutional base rates directly into conviction sizing.
Signal Logic
Default Signal: Conviction-Based Sizing with Precedent Bias
- 1. Discover active legal and regulatory markets on Polymarket
- Compute base conviction from distance to threshold (0% at boundary → 100% at p=0/p=1)
- Apply
precedent_bias() — multiplier based on documented legal/regulatory outcome statistics - Size =
max(MIN_TRADE, conviction × bias × MAX_POSITION) — capped at MAXPOSITION - Skip markets with spread > MAXSPREAD or fewer than MIN_DAYS to resolution
Precedent Bias (built-in, no API required)
Retail prices legal outcomes as coin flips. precedent_bias() corrects this using documented historical statistics:
| Action type | Historical rate | Multiplier |
|---|
| DOJ criminal conviction (post-indictment) | ~97% plea/conviction | 1.35x |
| Class action settlement |
~90%+ settle before trial |
1.25x |
| SEC enforcement (post-Wells Notice) | ~85% result in formal action |
1.20x |
| EU Phase 2 antitrust outcome | ~80%+ conditions or fine |
1.20x |
| SCOTUS reversal (cert granted) | ~70% reverse lower court |
1.15x |
| Crypto enforcement (post-charges) | High after formal charges |
1.15x |
| Big tech merger blocked (FTC/DOJ) | ~40–60%, rising trend |
1.10x |
| Regulatory approval / clearance | Harder to time |
0.80x |
Example: "Will X be convicted?" market at 25% after indictment → conviction 34% × 1.35x = 46% → $14. Retail prices this at 25%; base rate says 97%. That's the edge.
Why These Base Rates Hold
- - DOJ plea rate: Federal prosecutors only indict when they have ~overwhelming evidence — they win 97%+ of cases taken to trial or plea
- EU Phase 2: The EC procedural calendar is legally defined — opening Phase 2 is a strong signal of serious concerns
- SCOTUS cert: The Court takes cases primarily to correct errors — ~70% reversal is a documented statistical pattern
- Class action: Discovery costs and litigation risk make settlement the rational outcome in ~90%+ of cases
Remix Signal Ideas
- - CourtListener API: Free PACER docket API — monitor filing velocity as leading indicator before markets react
- SEC EDGAR enforcement: Track Wells Notice dates to anticipate formal action timing (avg 4–6 months)
- EU Competition docket: Phase 2 opening date + 13 months = almost exact closing date
- Courtroom View Network: Live trial feeds for real-time signal on verdict direction
Safety & Execution Mode
The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only with --live flag.
| Scenario | Mode | Financial risk |
|---|
| INLINECODE5 | Paper (sim) | None |
| Cron / automaton |
Paper (sim) | None |
|
python trader.py --live | Live (polymarket) | Real USDC |
INLINECODE7 and cron: null — nothing runs automatically until you configure it in Simmer UI.
Required Credentials
| Variable | Required | Notes |
|---|
| INLINECODE9 | Yes | Trading authority. Treat as high-value credential. |
Tunables (Risk Parameters)
All declared as tunables in clawhub.json and adjustable from the Simmer UI.
| Variable | Default | Purpose |
|---|
| INLINECODE12 | INLINECODE13 | Max USDC per trade (reached at 100% conviction) |
| INLINECODE14 |
8000 | Min market volume filter (USD) |
|
SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD |
0.10 | Max bid-ask spread (10%) |
|
SIMMER_MIN_DAYS |
7 | Min days until resolution |
|
SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS |
5 | Max concurrent open positions |
|
SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD |
0.38 | Buy YES if market price ≤ this value |
|
SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD |
0.62 | Sell NO if market price ≥ this value |
|
SIMMER_MIN_TRADE |
5 | Floor for any trade (min USDC regardless of conviction) |
Dependency
INLINECODE28 by Simmer Markets (SpartanLabsXyz)
- - PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
- GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
法律与监管交易员
这是一个模板。
默认信号是基于关键词的市场发现结合概率极端检测——请使用下方“边缘论点”中列出的数据源进行重新组合。
该技能处理所有底层工作（市场发现、交易执行、安全防护）。您的智能体提供阿尔法收益。
策略概述
法律预测市场存在巨大的信息不对称——大多数Polymarket零售参与者不阅读法庭文件，也不了解监管程序。他们将刑事定罪视为抛硬币，而实际司法部定罪率约为97%。本技能将记录在案的基础比率直接编码到定罪头寸规模中。
信号逻辑
默认信号：基于定罪规模与先例偏差
- 1. 发现Polymarket上活跃的法律和监管市场
- 根据与阈值的距离计算基础定罪率（边界处为0% → p=0/p=1时为100%）
- 应用precedent_bias()——基于记录在案的法律/监管结果统计数据的乘数
- 头寸规模 = max(最小交易量, 定罪率 × 偏差 × 最大仓位)——上限为最大仓位
- 跳过价差大于最大价差或距离结算少于最小天数的市场
先例偏差（内置，无需API）
零售市场将法律结果视为抛硬币。precedent_bias()使用记录在案的历史统计数据对此进行修正：
| 行动类型 | 历史比率 | 乘数 |
|---|
| 司法部刑事定罪（起诉后） | 约97%认罪/定罪 | 1.35倍 |
| 集体诉讼和解 |
约90%以上在审判前和解 |
1.25倍 |
| 美国证券交易委员会执法（收到威尔斯通知后） | 约85%导致正式行动 |
1.20倍 |
| 欧盟第二阶段反垄断结果 | 约80%以上附带条件或罚款 |
1.20倍 |
| 最高法院推翻原判（调卷令获批） | 约70%推翻下级法院判决 |
1.15倍 |
| 加密货币执法（指控后） | 正式指控后概率高 |
1.15倍 |
| 大型科技公司并购被阻止（联邦贸易委员会/司法部） | 约40–60%，呈上升趋势 |
1.10倍 |
| 监管批准/许可 | 时机更难把握 |
0.80倍 |
示例：起诉后“X会被定罪吗？”市场定价25% → 定罪率34% × 1.35倍 = 46% → 14美元。零售市场定价为25%；基础比率显示为97%。这就是优势所在。
这些基础比率为何成立
- - 司法部认罪率：联邦检察官只有在掌握压倒性证据时才会起诉——他们起诉或认罪的案件胜诉率超过97%
- 欧盟第二阶段：欧盟委员会的程序日程由法律明确规定——开启第二阶段是存在严重关切的强烈信号
- 最高法院调卷令：最高法院受理案件主要是为了纠正错误——约70%的推翻率是记录在案的统计模式
- 集体诉讼：发现成本和诉讼风险使得和解成为约90%以上案件的理性结果
重组信号思路
- - CourtListener API：免费的PACER案件档案API——在市场反应前监控文件提交速度作为领先指标
- 美国证券交易委员会EDGAR执法：追踪威尔斯通知日期以预测正式行动时机（平均4–6个月）
- 欧盟竞争案件档案：第二阶段开启日期加13个月几乎等于确切结案日期
- 法庭视角网络：实时庭审直播，获取判决走向的实时信号
安全与执行模式
该技能默认为模拟交易（venue=sim）。仅当使用--live标志时才进行真实交易。
| 场景 | 模式 | 财务风险 |
|---|
| python trader.py | 模拟（sim） | 无 |
| 定时任务/自动化程序 |
模拟（sim） | 无 |
| python trader.py --live | 实盘（polymarket） | 真实USDC |
autostart: false 和 cron: null —— 在Simmer用户界面配置之前，不会自动运行任何内容。
所需凭证
| 变量 | 必需 | 备注 |
|---|
| SIMMERAPIKEY | 是 | 交易授权。请视为高价值凭证。 |
可调参数（风险参数）
所有参数均在clawhub.json中声明为tunables，并可从Simmer用户界面进行调整。
| 变量 | 默认值 | 用途 |
|---|
| SIMMERMAXPOSITION | 30 | 每笔交易最大USDC（100%定罪率时达到） |
| SIMMERMINVOLUME |
8000 | 最小市场成交量过滤器（美元） |
| SIMMER
MAXSPREAD | 0.10 | 最大买卖价差（10%） |
| SIMMER
MINDAYS | 7 | 距离结算的最小天数 |
| SIMMER
MAXPOSITIONS | 5 | 最大同时持仓数量 |
| SIMMER
YESTHRESHOLD | 0.38 | 如果市场价格≤此值，买入YES |
| SIMMER
NOTHRESHOLD | 0.62 | 如果市场价格≥此值，卖出NO |
| SIMMER
MINTRADE | 5 | 任何交易的最低金额（无论定罪率如何，最小USDC） |
依赖项
simmer-sdk 由 Simmer Markets (SpartanLabsXyz) 提供
- - PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
- GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
