Nordic & Scandinavian Trader
This is a template.
The default signal is keyword discovery + Swedish/Nordic news feed monitoring — remix it with Riksdagen API for legislative tracking, SCB (Statistics Sweden) data releases, Affärsvärlden market feeds, or Spotify investor relations signals.
The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.
Strategy Overview
Nordic markets are one of the most underserved categories on global prediction platforms. Traders with genuine local knowledge — Swedish politics, Scandinavian business news, Nordic weather patterns — hold structural information advantages over global retail traders.
This skill trades:
- - Swedish politics — Government formation, Riksdag legislative milestones
- Nordic business — Spotify profitability, Northvolt recovery, Klarna/unicorn IPOs
- Infrastructure — Förbifart Stockholm, Malmö Arena, high-speed rail announcements
- Sports — Champions League Nordic teams, Swedish/Norwegian international competitions
- Local weather — Stockholm heatwaves, Öresund ice crossing, Oslo snowfall records
- Culture — Melodifestivalen viewership, Way Out West attendance
Key edge: the vast majority of Polymarket liquidity is US/global retail. Nordic-specific markets will have mispriced odds whenever the resolver requires local knowledge.
Signal Logic
Default Signal: Conviction-Based Sizing with Local Edge Bias
- 1. Discover markets matching Nordic/Scandinavian keywords
- Compute base conviction from distance to threshold (0% at boundary → 100% at p=0/p=1)
- Apply
local_edge_bias() — combines CET timezone timing with domain confidence - Size =
max(MIN_TRADE, conviction × bias × MAX_POSITION) — capped at MAXPOSITION - Skip markets with spread > MAXSPREAD or fewer than MIN_DAYS to resolution
Local Edge Bias (built-in, no API required)
INLINECODE2 multiplies conviction using two factors simultaneously:
Factor 1 — CET Timezone Window
Nordic news breaks during CET business hours (approx 06:00–18:00 UTC). Polymarket is US-dominated — repricing on Nordic news takes 2–6 hours. Trading inside the window means information is still fresh.
| Time (UTC) | Multiplier | Why |
|---|
| 06:00–18:00 | 1.2x | CET business hours — Nordic news is fresh, US retail hasn't caught up |
| 18:00–06:00 |
0.9x | Outside window — advantage likely already priced in |
Factor 2 — Domain Confidence
| Domain | Multiplier | Why |
|---|
| Riksdag / politics / elections | 1.20x | Public structured data, predictable process |
| Nordic tech (Spotify, Klarna, Northvolt) |
1.15x | Swedish business press is early and detailed |
| SMHI / local weather |
1.10x | Swedish forecasts published before English-language coverage |
| Sports / culture (Zlatan, Melodifestivalen) |
0.85x | High randomness, hard to model |
Combined multiplier is capped at 1.40x to avoid over-sizing on illiquid markets.
Example: Riksdag vote question at 25% during CET hours → conviction 34% × (1.2 × 1.2 = 1.40x capped) = 48% → $10 position. Same question at 01:00 UTC → 34% × (0.9 × 1.2 = 1.08x) = 37% → $7.
Remix Ideas
- - Riksdagen API: Feed live voting data into p — trade divergence between parliamentary consensus and market price
- SMHI API: Replace market probability with SMHI forecast confidence for weather markets
- SVT/Di.se RSS: Monitor Swedish news feeds for events that haven't hit English-language sources yet
- Avanza/Nordnet sentiment: Swedish retail stock sentiment as proxy for Nordic tech markets
- SCB data releases: Statistics Sweden economic releases as leading indicator for macro markets
Market Categories Tracked
CODEBLOCK0
Risk Parameters
| Parameter | Default | Notes |
|---|
| Max position size | $20 USDC | Nordic markets may be illiquid |
| Min market volume |
$1,000 | Accept lower liquidity for edge opportunity |
| Max bid-ask spread | 20% | Niche markets have wider spreads |
| Min days to resolution | 3 | Local events can resolve quickly |
| Max open positions | 8 | Diversify across Nordic themes |
Local Knowledge Edge
Information Advantage Examples
- - Förbifart Stockholm: A Swedish civil engineer knows the tunnel's actual completion status better than US retail traders
- Northvolt bankruptcy: Swedish business press covered the restructuring in detail months before English-language coverage
- SMHI winter forecasts: Local seasonal weather outlooks are published in Swedish first
- Melodifestivalen: SVT viewership trends visible to Swedish residents immediately
Timing Edge
Swedish/Nordic news typically breaks in CET timezone (UTC+1/+2). US-dominated Polymarket markets take 2–6 hours to reprice on Nordic news.
Key Data Sources
- - SMHI (Weather): https://www.smhi.se/
- Riksdagen (Parliament): https://data.riksdagen.se/
- SCB (Statistics): https://www.scb.se/
- SVT Nyheter: https://www.svt.se/nyheter/
- Di.se (Business): https://www.di.se/
Installation & Setup
CODEBLOCK1
Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY environment variable.
Cron Schedule
Runs every 15 minutes (*/15 * * * *). Nordic events follow business hours (CET); tighter polling during 06:00–22:00 CET recommended in remixes.
Safety & Execution Mode
The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.
| Scenario | Mode | Financial risk |
|---|
| INLINECODE7 | Paper (sim) | None |
| Cron / automaton |
Paper (sim) | None |
|
python trader.py --live | Live (polymarket) | Real USDC |
The automaton cron is set to null — it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. autostart: false means it won't start automatically on install.
Required Credentials
| Variable | Required | Notes |
|---|
| INLINECODE11 | Yes | Trading authority — keep this credential private. Do not place a live-capable key in any environment where automated code could call --live. |
Tunables (Risk Parameters)
All risk parameters are declared in clawhub.json as tunables and adjustable from the Simmer UI without code changes. They use SIMMER_-prefixed env vars so apply_skill_config() can load them securely.
| Variable | Default | Purpose |
|---|
| INLINECODE17 | INLINECODE18 | Max USDC per trade (reached at 100% conviction) |
| INLINECODE19 |
1000 | Min market volume filter (USD) |
|
SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD |
0.20 | Max bid-ask spread (0.20 = 20%, wider for niche markets) |
|
SIMMER_MIN_DAYS |
3 | Min days until market resolves |
|
SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS |
8 | Max concurrent open positions |
|
SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD |
0.38 | Buy YES if market price ≤ this value |
|
SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD |
0.62 | Sell NO if market price ≥ this value |
|
SIMMER_MIN_TRADE |
5 | Floor for any trade (min USDC regardless of conviction) |
Dependency
INLINECODE33 is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.
- - PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
- GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
- Publisher: hello@simmer.markets
Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.
北欧与斯堪的纳维亚交易员
这是一个模板。
默认信号为关键词发现 + 瑞典/北欧新闻源监控——可结合瑞典议会API进行立法追踪、瑞典统计局数据发布、Affärsvärlden市场资讯或Spotify投资者关系信号进行混编。
该技能处理所有底层工作（市场发现、交易执行、安全防护）。您的智能体提供阿尔法收益。
策略概述
北欧市场是全球预测平台上最被忽视的类别之一。具备真正本地知识的交易者——瑞典政治、斯堪的纳维亚商业新闻、北欧天气模式——相比全球散户交易者拥有结构性信息优势。
本技能交易以下领域：
- - 瑞典政治 — 政府组建、议会立法里程碑
- 北欧商业 — Spotify盈利能力、Northvolt复苏、Klarna/独角兽IPO
- 基础设施 — 斯德哥尔摩绕城公路、马尔默竞技场、高铁公告
- 体育 — 欧冠北欧球队、瑞典/挪威国际赛事
- 当地天气 — 斯德哥尔摩热浪、厄勒海峡结冰、奥斯陆降雪记录
- 文化 — 瑞典旋律节收视率、Way Out West音乐节参与人数
关键优势：Polymarket的绝大部分流动性来自美国/全球散户。每当解析需要本地知识时，北欧特定市场就会出现错误定价的赔率。
信号逻辑
默认信号：基于信念的仓位规模与本地优势偏差
- 1. 发现匹配北欧/斯堪的纳维亚关键词的市场
- 根据与阈值的距离计算基础信念（边界处0% → p=0/p=1时100%）
- 应用localedgebias() — 结合欧洲中部时间时区与领域置信度
- 仓位规模 = max(最小交易量, 信念 × 偏差 × 最大持仓) — 上限为最大持仓
- 跳过价差大于最大价差或距离解析不足最小天数的市场
本地优势偏差（内置，无需API）
localedgebias() 同时使用两个因素乘以信念：
因素1 — 欧洲中部时间窗口
北欧新闻在欧洲中部时间工作时段（约06:00–18:00 UTC）爆发。Polymarket以美国为主导——北欧新闻的重新定价需要2–6小时。在该窗口内交易意味着信息仍然新鲜。
| 时间 (UTC) | 乘数 | 原因 |
|---|
| 06:00–18:00 | 1.2倍 | 欧洲中部时间工作时段——北欧新闻新鲜，美国散户尚未跟上 |
| 18:00–06:00 |
0.9倍 | 窗口外——优势可能已被定价 |
因素2 — 领域置信度
| 领域 | 乘数 | 原因 |
|---|
| 议会/政治/选举 | 1.20倍 | 公开结构化数据，可预测流程 |
| 北欧科技（Spotify、Klarna、Northvolt） |
1.15倍 | 瑞典商业媒体报道早且详细 |
| 瑞典气象水文研究所/当地天气 |
1.10倍 | 瑞典天气预报先于英语媒体报道发布 |
| 体育/文化（伊布、瑞典旋律节） |
0.85倍 | 高随机性，难以建模 |
组合乘数上限为1.40倍，避免在流动性不足的市场过度建仓。
示例：欧洲中部时间工作时段内议会投票问题概率25% → 信念34% × (1.2 × 1.2 = 1.40倍上限) = 48% → 10美元仓位。同一问题在01:00 UTC → 34% × (0.9 × 1.2 = 1.08倍) = 37% → 7美元。
混编创意
- - 瑞典议会API：将实时投票数据输入p——交易议会共识与市场价格之间的偏差
- 瑞典气象水文研究所API：用瑞典气象水文研究所预报置信度替换天气市场的市场概率
- 瑞典电视台/每日工业报RSS：监控瑞典新闻源中尚未进入英语媒体的事件
- Avanza/Nordnet情绪：瑞典散户股票情绪作为北欧科技市场的代理指标
- 瑞典统计局数据发布：瑞典统计局经济数据发布作为宏观市场的领先指标
追踪的市场类别
python
关键词 = [
瑞典, Sverige, 斯德哥尔摩, 马尔默, 哥德堡,
挪威, Norge, 奥斯陆, 丹麦, Danmark, 哥本哈根,
芬兰, 赫尔辛基, 北欧, 斯堪的纳维亚,
Spotify, Northvolt, Klarna, 爱立信, 沃尔沃, 宜家,
议会, 瑞典旋律节, 伊布, 瑞典超,
瑞典气象水文研究所, 厄勒海峡,
]
风险参数
| 参数 | 默认值 | 说明 |
|---|
| 最大仓位规模 | 20 USDC | 北欧市场可能流动性不足 |
| 最小市场交易量 |
1,000美元 | 为优势机会接受较低流动性 |
| 最大买卖价差 | 20% | 小众市场价差更宽 |
| 距解析最小天数 | 3天 | 本地事件可能快速解析 |
| 最大开仓数量 | 8个 | 分散投资于北欧主题 |
本地知识优势
信息优势示例
- - 斯德哥尔摩绕城公路：瑞典土木工程师比美国散户交易者更了解隧道的实际完工状态
- Northvolt破产：瑞典商业媒体在英语媒体报道前数月就详细报道了重组过程
- 瑞典气象水文研究所冬季预报：当地季节性天气预报首先以瑞典语发布
- 瑞典旋律节：瑞典居民可立即看到瑞典电视台收视率趋势
时机优势
瑞典/北欧新闻通常在欧洲中部时间时区（UTC+1/+2）爆发。以美国为主导的Polymarket市场需要2–6小时才能对北欧新闻重新定价。
关键数据源
- - 瑞典气象水文研究所（天气）：https://www.smhi.se/
- 瑞典议会（议会）：https://data.riksdagen.se/
- 瑞典统计局（统计）：https://www.scb.se/
- 瑞典电视台新闻：https://www.svt.se/nyheter/
- 每日工业报（商业）：https://www.di.se/
安装与设置
bash
clawhub install polymarket-nordic-trader
需要：SIMMERAPIKEY 环境变量。
Cron计划
每15分钟运行一次（/15 *）。北欧事件遵循工作时间（欧洲中部时间）；建议在混编版本中在06:00–22:00欧洲中部时间期间进行更紧密的轮询。
安全与执行模式
该技能默认为模拟交易（venue=sim）。仅当显式传递--live时才执行真实交易。
| 场景 | 模式 | 财务风险 |
|---|
| python trader.py | 模拟（sim） | 无 |
| Cron/自动化 |
模拟（sim） | 无 |
| python trader.py --live | 实盘（polymarket） | 真实USDC |
自动化cron设置为null——在您在Simmer UI中配置之前，它不会按计划运行。autostart: false意味着安装后不会自动启动。
所需凭证
| 变量 | 必需 | 说明 |
|---|
| SIMMERAPIKEY | 是 | 交易权限——请保密此凭证。请勿将具有实盘能力的密钥放置在自动化代码可能调用--live的任何环境中。 |
可调参数（风险参数）
所有风险参数均在clawhub.json中声明为tunables，可从Simmer UI调整而无需更改代码。它们使用SIMMER前缀的环境变量，以便applyskill_config()可以安全加载它们。
| 变量 | 默认值 | 用途 |
|---|
| SIMMERMAXPOSITION | 20 | 每笔交易最大USDC（在100%信念时达到） |
| SIMMERMINVOLUME |
1000 | 最小市场交易量过滤器（美元） |
| SIMMER
MAXSPREAD | 0.20 | 最大买卖价差（0.20 = 20%，小众市场更宽） |
| SIMMER
MINDAYS | 3 | 距市场解析的最小天数 |
| SIMMER
MAXPOSITIONS | 8 | 最大并发开仓数量 |
| SIMMER
YESTHRESHOLD | 0.38 | 如果市场价格≤此值则买入YES |
| SIMMER
NOTHRESHOLD | 0.62 | 如果市场价格≥此值则卖出NO |
| SIMMER
MINTRADE | 5 | 任何
