Space & Launch Trader

This is a template.
The default signal is keyword discovery + FAA/SpaceX launch schedule alignment — remix it with NASA launch manifest APIs, TLE (Two-Line Element) satellite tracking data, or social media sentiment from SpaceX/Blue Origin announcements.
The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Space prediction markets have shown $120M+ cumulative volume (2020–2025) with 22% CAGR. Polymarket currently lists 106+ active space markets. This skill trades:

• - SpaceX milestones — Starship orbital tests, launch counts, Starlink constellation size
• Mars missions — NASA/private mission announcements and landing events
• Commercial spaceflight — Blue Origin, Virgin Galactic, Axiom Space timelines
• Satellite & telecom — Orbital congestion, direct-to-cell launch milestones
• Regulatory events — FAA approvals, international launch cadence comparisons

Key insight: volatility spikes ~25% around launch events, creating short-window entry opportunities for informed traders.

Signal Logic

Default Signal: Conviction-Based Sizing with Operator Reliability Bias

1. 1. Discover active space/launch markets on Polymarket
2. Compute base conviction from distance to threshold (0% at boundary → 100% at p=0/p=1)
3. Apply mission_bias() multiplier based on operator track record in the question
4. Size = max(MIN_TRADE, conviction × bias × MAX_POSITION) — capped at MAXPOSITION
5. Skip markets with spread > MAXSPREAD or fewer than MIN_DAYS to resolution

Mission Bias (built-in, no API required)

Retail traders apply uniform skepticism across all space markets, ignoring the vast difference in historical reliability between operators. mission_bias() encodes documented success rates directly into position sizing:

Operator / Mission	Track record	Multiplier
Falcon 9 / Starlink deployments	~98% mission success	1.35x
SpaceX / Crew Dragon (general)

~95% success | 1.25x |
| Starship (test vehicle) | Rapidly improving, ~60%+ | 1.10x |
| Blue Origin / New Glenn | Lower cadence, less proven | 0.90x |
| NASA Artemis / SLS | Chronic delays, over-budget | 0.80x |
| Mars missions (any operator) | Retail overprice enthusiasm | 0.75x |
| Virgin Galactic | Multiple delays, financial struggles | 0.70x |

Example: Falcon 9 launch success market at 25% → conviction 34% × 1.35x = 46% → $14 position. NASA SLS timeline market at same price → 34% × 0.80x = 27% → $8.

Remix Ideas

• - FAA NOTAM filings: Public Notice to Air Missions filed days ahead of launch — feed scheduled probability into p to trade divergence with market
• Next Spaceflight / Rocket Watch: Public launch calendars as leading probability signal
• NASA API: Real-time mission status and telemetry feeds
• Satellite TLE data: Verify actual Starlink constellation count vs market claims before milestone markets resolve

Market Categories Tracked

CODEBLOCK0

Risk Parameters

Parameter	Default	Notes
Max position size	$30 USDC	Space markets have good liquidity
Min market volume

$2,500 | Space community is engaged | | Max bid-ask spread | 8% | Tighter than climate markets | | Min days to resolution | 3 | Short-window launch events are tradable | | Max open positions | 6 | Space events cluster by launch window |

Volatility Note

Space markets spike sharply on anomaly news. If a launch is scrubbed, NO prices spike immediately. The skill detects these via context flip-flop warnings and pauses during high-volatility windows unless edge is strong.

Installation & Setup

CODEBLOCK1

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY environment variable.

Cron Schedule

Runs every 10 minutes (*/10 * * * *). Launch events can resolve rapidly; tighter loop than other categories.

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

Scenario	Mode	Financial risk
INLINECODE7	Paper (sim)	None
Cron / automaton

Paper (sim) | None |
| python trader.py --live | Live (polymarket) | Real USDC |

The automaton cron is set to null — it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. autostart: false means it won't start automatically on install.

Required Credentials

Variable	Required	Notes
INLINECODE11	Yes	Trading authority — keep this credential private. Do not place a live-capable key in any environment where automated code could call --live.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All risk parameters are declared in clawhub.json as tunables and adjustable from the Simmer UI without code changes. They use SIMMER_-prefixed env vars so apply_skill_config() can load them securely.

Variable	Default	Purpose
INLINECODE17	INLINECODE18	Max USDC per trade (reached at 100% conviction)
INLINECODE19

2500 | Min market volume filter (USD) |
| SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD | 0.08 | Max bid-ask spread (0.08 = 8%) |
| SIMMER_MIN_DAYS | 3 | Min days until market resolves |
| SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS | 6 | Max concurrent open positions |
| SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD | 0.38 | Buy YES if market price ≤ this value |
| SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD | 0.62 | Sell NO if market price ≥ this value |
| SIMMER_MIN_TRADE | 5 | Floor for any trade (min USDC regardless of conviction) |

Dependency

INLINECODE33 is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

• - PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
• Publisher: hello@simmer.markets

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.