Polymarket Wallet X-Ray

Analyze any Polymarket wallet's trading patterns, skill level, and edge detection.

No authentication needed. Queries Polymarket's public CLOB API directly.

Inspired by: The Autopsy: How to Read the Mind of a Polymarket Whale by @thejayden

This skill implements the forensic trading analysis framework developed by @thejayden. Read the original post to understand the philosophy behind Time Profitable, hedge checks, bot detection, and accumulation signals.

This is an analysis tool, not a trading signal. The skill returns forensic metrics for ANY Polymarket wallet — your agent uses them to UNDERSTAND traders, learn patterns, and make informed decisions. This is for education and research, not for blindly copying positions.

⚠️ Important Disclaimer

Past performance does not guarantee future results. A wallet's historical metrics tell you about:

• - ✅ How they traded in the past
• ✅ Their historical win rate and entry quality
• ❌ NOT whether their strategy will work going forward

Why copying is risky:

• - Market conditions change constantly
• A trader's edge might have been luck, timing, or specific to historical events
• Slippage and fees erode thin edges to zero
• Other traders copying the same strategy destroy the edge

Use this skill to:

• - ✅ Learn what skilled traders look like (metrics, behavior)
• ✅ Identify potential anomalies (bots, arbitrageurs)
• ✅ Understand trader psychology (FOMO vs. discipline)
• ✅ Inform your own strategy decisions

DO NOT use this skill to:

• - ❌ Automatically copytrade wallets
• ❌ Expect to replicate their returns
• ❌ Trade on these metrics without understanding why
• ❌ Risk significant capital on patterns you don't understand

When to Use This Skill

Use this skill when you want to:

• - Learn how skilled traders operate — What metrics separate winners from losers?
• Understand trading psychology — Who chases prices? Who has discipline?
• Detect bots and anomalies — Identify suspicious patterns for research
• Research arbitrage activity — Find wallets with hedged positions (educational)
• Compare trader profiles — What does a consistent trader look like vs. a lucky one?
• Inform your own strategy — Use patterns as input to YOUR decision-making, not as direct signals

NOT for:

• - Copying trades blindly or automatically
• Assuming past returns = future returns
• Making large bets on these metrics alone

Quick Commands

CODEBLOCK0

APIs Used (Public, No Auth Required):

• - Gamma API: https://gamma-api.polymarket.com — Market search
• CLOB API: https://clob.polymarket.com — Trade history and orderbook

What You Get Back

The skill returns comprehensive forensic metrics:

CODEBLOCK1

How It Works

1. 1. Fetch trade history — Download all trades this wallet made from Polymarket via Simmer API
2. Compute profitability timeline — When were they underwater vs. profitable?
3. Analyze entry quality — Did they buy at optimal prices or chase?
4. Detect trading patterns — Bot (inhuman speed) vs. human (deliberate timing)?
5. Check for arbitrage — Combined YES+NO avg < $1.00? (Potential structural edge — depends on execution and fees)
6. Assess behavior — FOMO accumulation? Disciplined sizing? Rotating positions?
7. Generate recommendation — Is this wallet worth following? What's the risk?

Understanding the Metrics

⏱️ Time Profitable (e.g., 75.3%)

• - >80% = Sniper-like (skilled entries, holds through drawdowns)
• 50-80% = Solid (good discipline)
• <50% = Risky (likely panic-held losses)

🎯 Entry Quality (e.g., 28 bps average slippage)

• - <20 bps = Expert. Limit orders, patience.
• 20-40 bps = Good. Balanced speed/price.
• >50 bps = Weak. Chasing prices.

🤖 Bot Detection (e.g., false)

• - <5 sec = Likely bot. Avoid unless you know it's a legitimate market maker.
• 5-30 sec = Possible bot.
• >30 sec = Human.

💰 Hedge Check (e.g., combined avg 0.98)

If combined < $1.00, they may have entered with a structural edge (lower combined cost than $1 payout). Actual profit depends on execution, fees, and spread.

• - < $0.95 = Strong potential edge. Likely institutional/pro.
• $0.95-1.00 = Slight edge detected.
• > $1.00 = No edge; betting on direction.

Usage Examples

Example 1: Learning from a skilled trader (Analysis)

CODEBLOCK2

Example 2: Research anomalies (Education)

CODEBLOCK3

Example 3: Informed decision-making (NOT blind copying)

CODEBLOCK4

Running the Skill

Analyze a single wallet (default):
CODEBLOCK5

Analyze wallet for a specific market:
CODEBLOCK6

Output as JSON (for scripts):
CODEBLOCK7

Compare two wallets:
CODEBLOCK8

Limit analysis to recent trades (faster):
CODEBLOCK9

Troubleshooting

"Wallet has no trades"

• - This wallet hasn't traded yet, or all trades are too old
• Try a wallet you know is active

"Market not found"

• - The market query didn't match anything on Polymarket
• Try a more specific market name or leave it blank to analyze all markets

"Analysis took too long"

• - For wallets with >500 trades, analysis can take 30+ seconds
• Use --limit 100 to analyze only recent trades for faster results

"API rate limited"

• - You're analyzing many wallets in quick succession
• Wait a minute before trying again, or use --limit to speed up individual analyses

"Connection error"

• - Check that Polymarket's CLOB API is reachable: INLINECODE4
• If down, try again later or use --limit 50 to reduce load

Credits

This skill is based on the forensic trading analysis framework from @thejayden's "Autopsy of a Polymarket Whale".

The original post shows how to:

• - Spot fake gurus (high PnL, terrible entries)
• Detect bots (inhuman trading speed)
• Find arbitrage opportunities (hedged positions)
• Understand trader psychology (FOMO vs. discipline)

All metrics and analysis patterns used here are derived from that work. If you find this useful, give the original post a read and follow @thejayden.

Links

• - Full Simmer API Reference: simmer.markets/docs.md
• Original Analysis: The Autopsy: How to Read the Mind of a Polymarket Whale
• Dashboard: simmer.markets/dashboard
• Support: Telegram