Polymarket Weather Scanner

Find profitable opportunities in Polymarket temperature markets using multi-model ensemble weather forecasts.

Works out of the box -- no API key needed for free tier (3 cities, 5 scans/day). Just install and run /scan.

What this skill does

- Aggregates forecasts from up to 9 weather models: GFS, ECMWF, JMA, GEM, MeteoFrance, UKMO, ICON, ARPEGE, GraphCast
Cross-validates with NWS (National Weather Service) official forecasts
Compares forecast probabilities against live Polymarket temperature market prices
Detects markets where the forecast disagrees with the market price (positive edge)
Reports confidence tiers based on model agreement: LOCK (all agree) / STRONG / SAFE / NEAR_SAFE
Covers 16 cities worldwide: NYC, Chicago, Miami, Dallas, Atlanta, Seattle, Toronto, London, Paris, Munich, Seoul, Ankara, Wellington, Lucknow, Buenos Aires, Sao Paulo

Quick Start

Install the skill, then:

CODEBLOCK0

That's it. No setup needed for free tier.

For full access (all 16 cities, 100 scans/day), get a free API key:

CODEBLOCK1

Then set: INLINECODE1

Commands

`/scan` - Scan for mispriced markets

Scan all active weather temperature markets for profitable opportunities.

When the user asks to scan weather markets, find opportunities, check for edge, or look for Polymarket trades, run:

CODEBLOCK2

Optional: pass number of days ahead to scan (default: 1). Example: INLINECODE3

Display results as a table showing: city, date, forecast temp, confidence tier, edge %, and market cost.

`/forecast <city>` - Get ensemble forecast

Get the multi-model ensemble weather forecast for a specific city.

When the user asks for a weather forecast, temperature prediction, or model comparison, run:

CODEBLOCK3

Where <city> is one of: nyc, chicago, miami, dallas, atlanta, seattle, toronto, london, paris, munich, seoul, ankara, wellington, lucknow, buenos-aires, sao-paulo.

And <date> is optional, in YYYY-MM-DD format (defaults to tomorrow).

Display the forecast showing: high temperature, standard deviation, number of models used, and individual model predictions.

`/cities` - List available cities

Show which cities are available for scanning based on your tier.

CODEBLOCK4

`/tiers` - Show subscription plans

Display available subscription tiers and pricing.

CODEBLOCK5

Tiers

Tier	Price	Cities	Scans/day	Features
Free	$0	NYC, Chicago, Miami	5	Core scanning
Scanner

Payment: USDC on Base chain. Run /tiers for details.

Use Cases

- Prediction market traders: Find temperature markets where the crowd is wrong
Weather enthusiasts: Compare multiple global weather models side-by-side
Quantitative analysts: Access ensemble forecast data with standard deviation and model agreement metrics
Arbitrage hunters: Detect when forecast probability diverges from market price

How It Works

1. Fetches forecasts from multiple independent weather models via Open-Meteo API
Calculates ensemble high temperature and standard deviation across models
Maps temperature to Polymarket range probabilities (e.g., "NYC high temp 60-69F")
Compares forecast probability vs market price for each range
Flags ranges where forecast probability exceeds market price (positive edge)
Rates confidence based on how many models agree

External Endpoints

Endpoint	Data Sent	Purpose
INLINECODE10	API key (header)	Scan markets
INLINECODE11

Security & Privacy

- Works without an API key (anonymous free tier with IP-based rate limiting)
Your API key is sent only to the scanner API server via HTTPS
No wallet private keys or trading credentials are transmitted
Market data comes from Polymarket's public Gamma API
Weather data comes from Open-Meteo (open source, no API key required)
All processing happens server-side; no data is stored from your queries

By using this skill, scan requests are sent to the Polymarket Weather Scanner API. Only install if you trust this service.

Polymarket 天气扫描器

利用多模型集合天气预报，在 Polymarket 温度市场中寻找盈利机会。

开箱即用——免费版无需 API 密钥（3 个城市，每天 5 次扫描）。只需安装并运行 /scan。

该技能的功能

- 聚合多达 9 个天气模型的预报：GFS、ECMWF、JMA、GEM、MeteoFrance、UKMO、ICON、ARPEGE、GraphCast
与美国国家气象局（NWS）官方预报进行交叉验证
将预报概率与 Polymarket 实时温度市场价格进行比较
检测预报与市场价格不一致的市场（正向优势）
根据模型一致性报告置信等级：LOCK（全部一致）/ STRONG / SAFE / NEAR_SAFE
覆盖全球 16 个城市：纽约、芝加哥、迈阿密、达拉斯、亚特兰大、西雅图、多伦多、伦敦、巴黎、慕尼黑、首尔、安卡拉、惠灵顿、勒克瑙、布宜诺斯艾利斯、圣保罗

快速开始

安装该技能，然后：

/scan

就这样。免费版无需任何设置。

如需完整访问权限（全部 16 个城市，每天 100 次扫描），请获取免费 API 密钥：

curl -X POST https://polymarket-scanner.fly.dev/keys/free

然后设置：export POLYMARKETSCANNERAPIKEY=pmyourkeyhere

命令

/scan - 扫描错误定价的市场

扫描所有活跃的天气温度市场，寻找盈利机会。

当用户要求扫描天气市场、寻找机会、检查优势或寻找 Polymarket 交易时，运行：

bash
bash {baseDir}/scripts/scan.sh

可选：传递要扫描的未来天数（默认：1）。示例：bash {baseDir}/scripts/scan.sh 3

以表格形式显示结果，包括：城市、日期、预报温度、置信等级、优势百分比和市场成本。

/forecast - 获取集合预报

获取特定城市的多模型集合天气预报。

当用户要求获取天气预报、温度预测或模型比较时，运行：

bash
bash {baseDir}/scripts/forecast.sh

其中为以下之一：nyc、chicago、miami、dallas、atlanta、seattle、toronto、london、paris、munich、seoul、ankara、wellington、lucknow、buenos-aires、sao-paulo。

为可选参数，格式为 YYYY-MM-DD（默认为明天）。

显示预报信息，包括：最高温度、标准差、使用的模型数量以及各模型预测值。

/cities - 列出可用城市

根据您的等级显示可用于扫描的城市。

bash
bash {baseDir}/scripts/cities.sh

/tiers - 显示订阅方案

显示可用的订阅等级和定价。

bash
bash {baseDir}/scripts/tiers.sh

等级方案

等级	价格	城市	每日扫描次数	功能
免费版	$0	纽约、芝加哥、迈阿密	5	核心扫描
扫描版

5 USDC/月 | 全部 16 个城市 | 100 | 完整覆盖 | | 专业版 | 15 USDC/月 | 全部 16 个城市 | 不限 | + 回测 | | 交易版 | 30 USDC/月 | 全部 16 个城市 | 不限 | + 自动交易信号 |

支付方式：Base 链上的 USDC。运行 /tiers 查看详情。

使用场景

- 预测市场交易者：寻找大众判断错误的温度市场
天气爱好者：并排比较多个全球天气模型
量化分析师：获取包含标准差和模型一致性指标的集合预报数据
套利猎手：检测预报概率与市场价格出现分歧时

工作原理

1. 通过 Open-Meteo API 从多个独立天气模型获取预报
计算各模型的集合最高温度和标准差
将温度映射到 Polymarket 范围概率（例如，纽约最高温度 60-69°F）
比较每个范围的预报概率与市场价格
标记预报概率超过市场价格的范围（正向优势）
根据达成一致的模型数量评定置信度

外部端点

端点	发送数据	用途
https://polymarket-scanner.fly.dev/scan/weather	API 密钥（标头）	扫描市场
https://polymarket-scanner.fly.dev/forecast/{city}

安全与隐私

- 无需 API 密钥即可使用（基于 IP 限速的匿名免费版）
您的 API 密钥仅通过 HTTPS 发送到扫描器 API 服务器
不会传输任何钱包私钥或交易凭证
市场数据来自 Polymarket 的公开 Gamma API
天气数据来自 Open-Meteo（开源，无需 API 密钥）
所有处理均在服务器端完成；不会存储您的查询数据

使用此技能即表示扫描请求将发送至 Polymarket 天气扫描器 API。仅在您信任此服务时安装。

polymarket-weather-scannerPolymarket天气扫描