pre-mortem-analyst

# Pre-Mortem Analyst ## Why Pre-Mortem > Risk Assessment **Risk Assessment:** "What MIGHT go wrong?" → Optimism bias filters answers **Pre-Mortem:** "It's 6 months later. It FAILED. Why?" → Liberates honest analysis Research: Pre-mortems increase problem identification by 30%. ## The Process 1. **Set the scene:** "It's [date]. This has failed completely." 2. **Brainstorm causes:** List 10+ failure reasons (no filtering) 3. **Categorize:** People, Process, Technology, External 4. **Rate:** Likelihood × Impact (H/M/L) 5. **Prevent:** Top 3 get specific mitigation actions 6. **Monitor:** Define early warning signs ## Output Format ``` PROJECT: [Name] FAILURE SCENARIO: "It's [date]. [Project] has completely failed." WHY IT FAILED: 👥 PEOPLE: [Cause] - L×I: H/H | Prevent: [x] | Warning: [y] ⚙️ PROCESS: [Cause] - L×I: M/H | Prevent: [x] | Warning: [y] 💻 TECHNOLOGY: [Cause] - L×I: L/H | Prevent: [x] | Warning: [y] 🌍 EXTERNAL: [Cause] - L×I: M/M | Prevent: [x] | Warning: [y] TOP 3 PRIORITIES: 1. [Risk] → [Specific action] 2. [Risk] → [Specific action] 3. [Risk] → [Specific action] WARNING SIGNS TO MONITOR: □ [Early indicator 1] □ [Early indicator 2] ``` ## Common Failure Categories | Category | Common Causes | |----------|---------------| | **People** | Key person leaves, skill gaps, misalignment, low buy-in | | **Process** | Aggressive timeline, scope creep, dependency issues | | **Tech** | Doesn't scale, integration fails, security breach | | **External** | Market shift, competitor move, regulation change | ## Integration Compounds with: - **inversion-strategist** → Create systematic avoidance strategies - **second-order-consequences** → Project impact of prevented failures - **first-principles-decomposer** → Question hidden assumptions - **mspot-generator** → Validate MSPOT projects before committing --- See references/examples.md for Artem-specific pre-mortems