Prediction Stack Setup — One-Command System Activation

Overview

This skill wires the 10-skill OpenClaw Prediction Market Trading Stack into a connected, proactive system. Without setup, skills work individually when you ask for them. After setup, the runtime skills run autonomously — scanning markets, detecting edges, monitoring positions, and delivering intelligence to your phone on a schedule.

What it does:

1. 1. Detects which stack skills are installed
2. Configures API keys and credentials
3. Validates all APIs before creating jobs (prevents silent failures)
4. Creates scheduled jobs (cron) for each skill
5. Enables heartbeat for ambient awareness
6. Sets up iMessage delivery
7. Tests the full pipeline end-to-end

Time to complete: Under 5 minutes

When to Use This Skill

• - You just installed the Prediction Market Trading Stack (all 8 skills or any subset)
• You just installed the Prediction Market Trading Stack (all 10 skills or any subset)
• You want to activate automated scanning and alerts
• You need to change your delivery target (new phone, new email handle)
• You want to adjust scan schedules or alert thresholds
• You're migrating from a previous setup or starting fresh
• Something broke and you want to rewire from scratch

Prerequisites

Required

• - OpenClaw installed and running (gateway active)
• At least one stack skill installed (any of the 10)
• Kalshi account with API credentials (free at kalshi.com)
• Anthropic API key (for Claude Sonnet estimation in Kalshalyst)

Optional (Enhances the Stack)

• - Polygon.io API key (free tier — adds news context to Kalshalyst)
• Ollama + Qwen installed locally (free — adds offline fallback + Xpulse materiality gate)
• BlueBubbles running on your Mac (required for iMessage delivery)

Setup Procedure

Phase 1: Skill Detection

First, check which stack skills are installed. Run this command:

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The 10 stack skills:

Skill	Role	Required For
Kalshalyst	Edge detection engine	Edge alerts, Morning Brief edges section
Kalshi Command Center

Trade execution | Executing on Kalshalyst recommendations |
| Polymarket Command Center | Market data | Arbiter comparisons, Morning Brief Polymarket section |
| Prediction Market Arbiter | Cross-platform divergences | Arbitrage alerts, Morning Brief divergences section |
| Xpulse | Social signal scanner | Signal alerts, Morning Brief X signals section |
| Portfolio Drift Monitor | Position monitoring | Drift alerts between briefs |
| Market Morning Brief | Daily digest | Consolidated morning/evening intelligence |
| Personality Engine | Agent behavior | Consistent voice across all output |
| Prediction Stack Orchestrator | Premium/experimental pipeline manager | Validation and execution routing |
| Prediction Stack Setup | Setup wizard | Validation, scheduling, delivery wiring |

Minimum viable stack: Kalshalyst + Kalshi Command Center + Market Morning Brief. These three give you edge detection, execution, and daily digest. Everything else enriches the system.

Full stack: All 10 skills. Morning Brief pulls from every cache and the orchestrator adds a premium/experimental automation path on top.

Install missing skills:
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Phase 2: API Key Configuration

Create or update ~/.openclaw/config.yaml:

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Kalshi key setup (if you don't have one yet):

1. 1. Log in at https://kalshi.com
2. Go to Settings → API Keys
3. Generate a new key pair
4. Save the private key:

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Phase 2.5: Validate API Keys

Before creating cron jobs, verify that all configured APIs are working. This prevents hours of silent failures where the stack runs but can't reach its data sources.

Run the validation script:

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Output Example:
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What each validation tests:

Service	Required	Test	Failure Handling
Kalshi	Yes	INLINECODE1 call	Blocks setup if auth fails
Claude

Yes | Simple completion call | Blocks setup if key invalid |
| Polygon.io | No | Public market status endpoint | Kalshalyst works without it |
| Ollama/Qwen | No | Model availability + inference | Kalshalyst uses Claude fallback |
| Polymarket | No | Public API endpoint access | Arbiter works without it |

If validation fails on REQUIRED services:

1. 1. Kalshi fails — Check error message:

- "Authentication failed": Verify key ID and private key file are correct at https://kalshi.com/settings/api - "Network error": Verify internet connectivity, check Kalshi status at status.kalshi.com - "File not found": Verify private_key_file path in config.yaml exists and is readable

1. 2. Claude fails — Check error message:

- "Invalid or expired API key": Generate a new key at https://console.anthropic.com/account/keys - "Network error": Verify internet connectivity - "Rate limited": Wait 60 seconds and retry

1. 3. Optional services fail — This is OK. The stack will work but with reduced functionality:

- Polygon.io missing: Kalshalyst estimates will lack news context - Ollama missing: Kalshalyst will use Claude for all estimates (higher cost) - Polymarket missing: Arbiter won't find cross-platform divergences

To validate only specific services:

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Phase 3: iMessage Delivery Setup

The stack delivers alerts via iMessage through BlueBubbles. This requires:

1. 1. BlueBubbles running on your Mac (https://bluebubbles.app)
2. BlueBubbles password set in OpenClaw config
3. Your iMessage email handle (the email registered with your Apple ID for iMessage)

Configure BlueBubbles:
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Test delivery:
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If the message arrives on your phone, delivery is working. If not:

Troubleshooting:

• - Verify BlueBubbles is running (check the app on your Mac)
• Verify Full Disk Access is granted to Terminal (System Settings → Privacy & Security → Full Disk Access)
• On macOS Tahoe+: use email handles, not phone numbers, for proactive sends
• Check gateway logs: INLINECODE3
• Run diagnostics: INLINECODE4

Phase 4: Create Scheduled Jobs

Important: Complete Phase 2.5 (API validation) before running these commands. Cron jobs will fail silently if APIs are misconfigured.

These cron jobs are the nervous system of the stack — they trigger skills on a schedule and deliver results to your phone. Replace YOURIMESSAGEEMAIL in every command below.

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Verify all jobs:
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You should see 6 jobs: morning-brief, evening-brief, edge-scan, xpulse-scan, drift-monitor, arbiter-scan.

Quick reference — what fires when:

Time	Job	What Happens
8:00 AM	morning-brief + edge-scan	Full digest + first edge scan of the day
9:00 AM

drift-monitor + arbiter-scan | Position check + first arbitrage scan |
| 9:30 AM | xpulse-scan | Social signal check |
| 10:00 AM | edge-scan + drift-monitor + xpulse-scan | Edge + drift + signals |
| ... | (continues hourly/half-hourly) | |
| 5:00 PM | arbiter-scan | Last arbitrage scan |
| 6:00 PM | evening-brief | Evening summary |
| 8:00 PM | edge-scan + drift-monitor | Last edge scan + drift check |
| 10:00 PM | xpulse-scan | Last signal scan (then quiet until 8 AM) |

Phase 5: Enable Heartbeat

Heartbeat gives your agent ambient awareness between scheduled jobs. Every 30 minutes during active hours, the agent checks if anything needs attention.

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Optional — configure HEARTBEAT.md for proactive checks between scans:

Edit ~/.openclaw/workspace/HEARTBEAT.md:
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Phase 6: Verify Everything

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If the manual edge scan delivers results to your phone (or runs silently because nothing met threshold), the stack is fully operational.

Post-Setup: What to Expect

First 24 Hours

• - Immediately: Xpulse fires every 30 min. Most runs will be silent (nothing passes materiality gate). This is correct — silence means the filter is working.
• Next morning at 8 AM: First Morning Brief arrives. If other skill caches are empty (first run), sections will show "unavailable" — they'll populate after the first scan cycle.
• By end of day 1: All caches populated. Evening Brief will have a full picture.

Ongoing

• - Most alerts are silence. This is by design. The stack is built to prevent notification fatigue. You'll get 2-5 actionable alerts per day, not 50.
• Morning Brief is your daily touchpoint. 30-second scan of everything that matters.
• Edge alerts are the money. When Kalshalyst fires with >= 6% edge, that's your signal to look at the trade.

Tuning

After a week of operation, you may want to adjust:

Alert thresholds (in cron job messages or config.yaml):

• - Raise alert_edge_pct from 6% to 8% if too many low-quality alerts
• Lower to 4% if you're not seeing enough opportunities
• Adjust drift threshold from 5% to 3% (more sensitive) or 10% (less noise)

Schedule frequency:

• - Reduce edge-scan to 3x daily if API costs are a concern
• Increase xpulse to every 15 min if you trade breaking news heavily
• Add weekend scanning by changing cron expressions

Xpulse topics (in config.yaml):

• - Add topics matching your active positions
• Remove topics you're no longer trading

To update a cron job:
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Reconfiguration

Change Delivery Target

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Change Timezone

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Disable a Job Temporarily

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Full Reset

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How the Skills Connect (System Architecture)

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Data flow: Skills write JSON cache files. Morning Brief reads them. Cron jobs trigger everything. BlueBubbles delivers to iMessage. No direct dependencies between skills — install any subset and each works standalone.

Cost Summary

Component	Cost	Notes
Kalshi API	Free	Unlimited reads
Polymarket API

Free | Public, no auth | | Polygon.io | Free | Free tier sufficient | | DuckDuckGo | Free | Via Xpulse | | Ollama/Qwen | Free | Local inference | | Claude Sonnet | Variable | Depends on model, prompt size, and scan frequency | | BlueBubbles | Free | Self-hosted on Mac | | Total | Variable | Claude is the only paid dependency in the public reference path |

Troubleshooting

No messages arriving

1. 1. Test send: INLINECODE7
2. Check BB is running (BlueBubbles app on Mac)
3. Check FDA: System Settings → Privacy & Security → Full Disk Access → Terminal
4. Check gateway: INLINECODE8
5. On macOS Tahoe+: use email handles, not phone numbers

Cron jobs not firing

1. 1. Verify gateway is running: INLINECODE9
2. List jobs: openclaw cron list (check "Next" column)
3. Manual trigger: INLINECODE11
4. Check logs: INLINECODE12

Skills not finding data

1. 1. First, run the validation script to catch API issues early:

   python ~/skills/prediction-stack-setup/scripts/validate_setup.py --verbose
   

This will identify which API is misconfigured.

1. 2. Check API keys: verify ~/.openclaw/config.yaml has valid credentials
2. Test Kalshi: INLINECODE14
3. Check Ollama (for Xpulse): ollama list should show qwen3:latest

Morning Brief shows "unavailable" sections

This is normal on first run — caches haven't been populated yet. After one full scan cycle (edge-scan + arbiter-scan + xpulse-scan), all caches will exist and Morning Brief will show full data.

Stack Skills Reference

For detailed documentation on each skill, read its SKILL.md:

• - Kalshalyst — Contrarian edge detection. The intelligence engine.
• Kalshi Command Center — Portfolio, scanning, trade execution, risk management.
• Polymarket Command Center — Trending markets, odds, search, watchlists.
• Prediction Market Arbiter — Cross-platform divergence scanner.
• Xpulse — X/Twitter social signal scanner with materiality gate.
• Portfolio Drift Monitor — Position drift alerts.
• Market Morning Brief — Daily morning/evening intelligence digest.
• Personality Engine — 6-system behavior framework for consistent agent voice.

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Feedback & Issues

Found a bug? Have a feature request? Want to share results?

• - GitHub Issues: github.com/kingmadellc/openclaw-prediction-stack/issues
• X/Twitter: @KingMadeLLC

Part of the OpenClaw Prediction Stack — the first prediction market skill suite on ClawHub.