Scenario War Room

Model cascading what-if scenarios across all business functions. Not single-assumption stress tests — compound adversity that shows how one problem creates the next.

Keywords

scenario planning, war room, what-if analysis, risk modeling, cascading effects, compound risk, adversity planning, contingency planning, stress test, crisis planning, multi-variable scenario, pre-mortem

Quick Start

CODEBLOCK0

Or describe the scenario:
CODEBLOCK1

What This Is Not

• - Not a single-assumption stress test (that's /em:stress-test)
• Not financial modeling only — every function gets modeled
• Not worst-case-only — models 3 severity levels
• Not paralysis by analysis — outputs concrete hedges and triggers

Framework: 6-Step Cascade Model

Step 1: Define Scenario Variables (max 3)

State each variable with:

• - What changes — specific, quantified if possible
• Probability — your best estimate
• Timeline — when it hits

CODEBLOCK2

Step 2: Domain Impact Mapping

For each variable, each relevant role models impact:

Domain	Owner	Models
Cash & runway	CFO	Burn impact, runway change, bridge options
Revenue

CRO | ARR gap, churn cascade risk, pipeline |
| Product | CPO | Roadmap impact, PMF risk |
| Engineering | CTO | Velocity impact, key person risk |
| People | CHRO | Attrition cascade, hiring freeze implications |
| Operations | COO | Capacity, OKR impact, process risk |
| Security | CISO | Compliance timeline risk |
| Market | CMO | CAC impact, competitive exposure |

Step 3: Cascade Effect Mapping

This is the core. Show how Variable A triggers consequences in domains that trigger Variable B's effects:

CODEBLOCK3

Name the cascade explicitly. Show where it can be interrupted.

Step 4: Severity Matrix

Model three scenarios:

Scenario	Definition	Recovery
Base	One variable hits; others don't	Manageable with plan
Stress

Two variables hit simultaneously | Requires significant response |
| Severe | All variables hit; full cascade | Existential; requires board intervention |

For each severity level:

• - Runway impact
• ARR impact
• Headcount impact
• Timeline to unacceptable state (trigger point)

Step 5: Trigger Points (Early Warning Signals)

Define the measurable signal that tells you a scenario is unfolding before it's confirmed:

CODEBLOCK4

Step 6: Hedging Strategies

For each scenario: actions to take now (before the scenario materializes) that reduce impact if it does.

Hedge	Cost	Impact	Owner	Deadline
Establish $500K credit line	$5K/year	Buys 3 months if churn hits	CFO	60 days
12-month retention bonus for 3 key engineers

$90K | Locks team through fundraise | CHRO | 30 days |
| Diversify to <20% revenue concentration per customer | Sales effort | Reduces single-customer risk | CRO | 2 quarters |
| Compress fundraise timeline, start parallel process | CEO time | Closes before runways merge | CEO | Immediate |

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Output Format

Every war room session produces:

CODEBLOCK5

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Rules for Good War Room Sessions

Max 3 variables per scenario. More than 3 is noise — you can't meaningfully prepare for 5-variable collapse. Model the 3 that actually worry you.

Quantify or estimate. "Revenue drops" is not useful. "$420K ARR at risk over 60 days" is. Use ranges if uncertain.

Don't stop at first-order effects. The damage is always in the cascade, not the initial hit.

Model recovery, not just impact. Every scenario should have a "what we do" path.

Separate base case from sensitivity. Don't conflate "what probably happens" with "what could happen."

Don't over-model. 3-4 scenarios per planning cycle is the right number. More creates analysis paralysis.

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Common Scenarios by Stage

Seed:

• - Co-founder leaves + product misses launch
• Funding runs out + bridge terms unfavorable

Series A:

• - Miss ARR target + fundraise delayed
• Key customer churns + competitor raises

Series B:

• - Market contraction + burn multiple spikes
• Lead investor wants pivot + team resists

Integration with C-Suite Roles

Scenario Type	Primary Roles	Cascade To
Revenue miss	CRO, CFO	CMO (pipeline), COO (cuts), CHRO (layoffs)
Key person departure

CHRO, COO | CTO (if eng), CRO (if sales) | | Fundraise failure | CFO, CEO | COO (runway extension), CHRO (hiring freeze) | | Security breach | CISO, CTO | CEO (comms), CFO (cost), CRO (customer impact) | | Market shift | CEO, CPO | CMO (repositioning), CRO (new segments) | | Competitor move | CMO, CRO | CPO (roadmap response), CEO (strategy) |

References

• - references/scenario-planning.md — Shell methodology, pre-mortem, Monte Carlo, cascade frameworks
• INLINECODE2 — CLI tool for structured scenario modeling