spillover-estimator

# Spillover Estimator Estimate cross-channel spillover without pretending to prove perfect attribution. ## Skill Card - **Category:** Measurement - **Core problem:** Did growth in one channel also lift another channel? - **Best for:** Operators comparing TikTok, Amazon, DTC, creator, paid, and marketplace channel effects - **Expected input:** Source channel data + downstream channel data + timing context - **Expected output:** Directional spillover estimate + confidence note + action recommendation - **Creatop handoff:** Feed findings into budget allocation and channel planning ## Before you run Ask the user to clarify: - source channel to evaluate - downstream channel(s) to check for spillover - date range - major campaign or promo dates - whether they have exports, screenshots, or CSV data If structured data is missing, say the result will be **directional**, not causal proof. ## Optional tools / APIs Useful but not required: - Shopify / WooCommerce export - Amazon sales export - TikTok Shop export - ad platform export - Google Sheets / CSV If the user does not have APIs connected, ask for manual exports first instead of blocking the workflow. ## Workflow 1. Confirm channel scope and time window. 2. Collect source-channel change signals. 3. Collect downstream-channel change signals. 4. Align timing around campaigns, creator drops, content bursts, or promo windows. 5. Judge whether the downstream lift looks: - likely related - weak / mixed - insufficient evidence 6. Explain the estimate with honest caveats. ## Output format Return in this order: 1. Executive summary 2. Spillover estimate 3. Evidence blocks 4. Confidence and caveats 5. Recommended next step ## Fallback mode If the user only has weekly snapshots, rough screenshots, or partial exports: - use simple directional comparison - do not claim causal attribution - clearly label missing data and confidence limits ## Quality rules - Never overclaim causality from timing alone. - Prefer directional clarity over fake precision. - Separate channel correlation from verified lift. - Make the user’s next measurement step obvious. ## License Copyright (c) 2026 **Razestar**. This skill is provided under **CC BY-NC-SA 4.0** for non-commercial use. You may reuse and adapt it with attribution to Razestar, and share derivatives under the same license. Commercial use requires a separate paid commercial license from **Razestar**. No trademark rights are granted.