trading-research

# Trading Research Skill Comprehensive cryptocurrency trading research and analysis focused on Binance markets. Designed for conservative-moderate risk traders using DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging) strategies with technical analysis support. ## When to Use This Skill Activate when user requests: - Current crypto prices or market data - Technical analysis (RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands, etc.) - DCA strategy planning or schedule calculation - Position sizing with risk management - Market scanning for opportunities - Whale tracking or large order monitoring - Trading strategy advice or risk assessment ## Core Philosophy - **Conservative first**: Preserve capital, minimize risk - **DCA-focused**: Time in market > timing the market - **Risk management**: Never risk more than 1-2% per trade - **Data-driven**: Use technical indicators for confirmation, not prediction - **Transparent**: Show calculations, explain reasoning ## Available Tools ### 1. Market Data (`binance_market.py`) Fetch real-time Binance market data. **Use when**: User asks for price, volume, orderbook, recent trades, or funding rates. **Common commands**: ```bash # Current price and 24h stats (default) python3 scripts/binance_market.py --symbol BTCUSDT # Orderbook depth python3 scripts/binance_market.py --symbol BTCUSDT --orderbook --depth 20 # Candlestick data python3 scripts/binance_market.py --symbol BTCUSDT --klines 1h --limit 100 # Recent trades python3 scripts/binance_market.py --symbol BTCUSDT --trades --limit 100 # Funding rate (futures) python3 scripts/binance_market.py --symbol BTCUSDT --funding # All data at once python3 scripts/binance_market.py --symbol BTCUSDT --all # JSON output (for piping) python3 scripts/binance_market.py --symbol BTCUSDT --json > btc_data.json ``` **Intervals**: 1m, 5m, 15m, 30m, 1h, 4h, 1d, 1w ### 2. Technical Analysis (`technical_analysis.py`) Calculate and interpret technical indicators. **Use when**: User asks for TA, indicators, buy/sell signals, or market analysis. **Common commands**: ```bash # Full analysis (default: 1h timeframe, 200 candles) python3 scripts/technical_analysis.py --symbol BTCUSDT # Different timeframe python3 scripts/technical_analysis.py --symbol BTCUSDT --interval 4h # Custom RSI period python3 scripts/technical_analysis.py --symbol BTCUSDT --rsi-period 21 # From saved klines JSON python3 scripts/technical_analysis.py --input btc_klines.json # JSON output python3 scripts/technical_analysis.py --symbol BTCUSDT --json ``` **What it analyzes**: - Trend direction (SMA 20/50, EMA 12/26) - RSI (14) - overbought/oversold - MACD - momentum and crossovers - Bollinger Bands - volatility and position - Support/resistance levels - Volume analysis - Trading signals and recommendations ### 3. DCA Calculator (`dca_calculator.py`) Plan Dollar Cost Averaging strategies. **Use when**: User wants to set up DCA, calculate investment schedules, or compare strategies. **Common commands**: ```bash # Basic DCA plan python3 scripts/dca_calculator.py --total 5000 --frequency weekly --duration 180 # With current price for projections python3 scripts/dca_calculator.py --total 10000 --frequency monthly --duration 365 --current-price 100000 # Show scenario analysis python3 scripts/dca_calculator.py --total 5000 --frequency weekly --duration 180 --current-price 100000 --scenarios # Custom start date python3 scripts/dca_calculator.py --total 5000 --frequency weekly --duration 180 --start-date 2026-03-01 # JSON output python3 scripts/dca_calculator.py --total 5000 --frequency weekly --duration 180 --json ``` **Frequencies**: daily, weekly, biweekly, monthly **Output includes**: - Purchase schedule with dates and amounts - Number of purchases and amount per purchase - Scenario analysis (flat, bull, bear markets) - Comparison to lump sum approach ### 4. Position Sizer (`position_sizer.py`) Calculate safe position sizes using risk management rules. **Use when**: User wants to enter a trade and needs to know position size, stop loss, or take profit levels. **Common commands**: ```bash # Basic position sizing (2% risk recommended) python3 scripts/position_sizer.py --balance 10000 --risk 2 --entry 100000 --stop-loss 95000 # Conservative 1% risk python3 scripts/position_sizer.py --balance 10000 --risk 1 --entry 100000 --stop-loss 97000 # Custom take-profit ratios python3 scripts/position_sizer.py --balance 10000 --risk 2 --entry 100000 --stop-loss 95000 --take-profit 2 3 5 # Ladder strategy (scaling in) python3 scripts/position_sizer.py --balance 10000 --risk 2 --entry 100000 --stop-loss 95000 --ladder 3 # JSON output python3 scripts/position_sizer.py --balance 10000 --risk 2 --entry 100000 --stop-loss 95000 --json ``` **Output includes**: - Position size in units and dollar value - Risk amount in dollars - Stop loss percentage - Take profit levels at multiple R:R ratios - Position as percentage of account - Warnings if position too large **Rules**: - Conservative: Risk 1% per trade - Moderate: Risk 2% per trade - Never exceed 3% risk per trade - Position should be <50% of account ### 5. Market Scanner (`market_scanner.py`) Scan all Binance USDT pairs for opportunities. **Use when**: User wants to find top movers, volume spikes, or new opportunities. **Common commands**: ```bash # Full market scan (default) python3 scripts/market_scanner.py # Top gainers only python3 scripts/market_scanner.py --gainers --limit 20 # High volume pairs python3 scripts/market_scanner.py --volume # Most volatile pairs python3 scripts/market_scanner.py --volatile # Breakout candidates (near 24h high with volume) python3 scripts/market_scanner.py --breakout # Filter by minimum volume python3 scripts/market_scanner.py --min-volume 500000 # JSON output python3 scripts/market_scanner.py --json ``` **Categories scanned**: - Top gainers (24h price change) - Top losers (24h price change) - Highest volume pairs - Most volatile pairs (high-low spread) - Potential breakouts (near 24h high + volume) ### 6. Whale Tracker (`whale_tracker.py`) Monitor large trades and orderbook imbalances. **Use when**: User asks about whale activity, large orders, or orderbook pressure. **Common commands**: ```bash # Full whale analysis (default) python3 scripts/whale_tracker.py --symbol BTCUSDT # Large trades only python3 scripts/whale_tracker.py --symbol BTCUSDT --trades # Orderbook imbalances only python3 scripts/whale_tracker.py --symbol BTCUSDT --orderbook # Custom orderbook depth python3 scripts/whale_tracker.py --symbol BTCUSDT --orderbook --depth 50 # Adjust threshold (default 90th percentile) python3 scripts/whale_tracker.py --symbol BTCUSDT --threshold 95 # JSON output python3 scripts/whale_tracker.py --symbol BTCUSDT --json ``` **Output includes**: - Large trades (top 10% by value) - Buy vs sell pressure from large trades - Orderbook bid/ask imbalance - Orderbook walls (large orders) - Market sentiment (bullish/bearish/neutral) ## Quick Start Workflows ### "What's BTC doing?" ```bash # Get overview python3 scripts/binance_market.py --symbol BTCUSDT --ticker # Technical analysis python3 scripts/technical_analysis.py --symbol BTCUSDT --interval 1h ``` ### "Should I buy now?" ```bash # Check technicals first python3 scripts/technical_analysis.py --symbol BTCUSDT # Check whale activity python3 scripts/whale_tracker.py --symbol BTCUSDT # If signals look good, calculate position size python3 scripts/position_sizer.py --balance 10000 --risk 2 --entry <CURRENT_PRICE> --stop-loss <SUPPORT_LEVEL> ``` ### "Set up a DCA plan" ```bash # Plan the strategy python3 scripts/dca_calculator.py --total 5000 --frequency weekly --duration 180 --current-price <CURRENT_PRICE> --scenarios # Show them the schedule and explain ``` ### "Find me opportunities" ```bash # Scan market python3 scripts/market_scanner.py # For interesting pairs, do deeper analysis python3 scripts/technical_analysis.py --symbol <PAIR> python3 scripts/whale_tracker.py --symbol <PAIR> ``` ### "What's the market sentiment?" ```bash # Check whale activity python3 scripts/whale_tracker.py --symbol BTCUSDT # Check volume and volatility python3 scripts/market_scanner.py --volume --volatile ``` ## Reference Materials Located in `references/` directory: ### `binance-api.md` - API endpoints and parameters - Rate limits - Authentication for signed requests - Order types and time-in-force - Error codes - Python examples **Use when**: Need API details, building custom queries, or troubleshooting ### `indicators.md` - Technical indicator formulas - Interpretation guidelines - Common settings per timeframe - Combining indicators - Reliability assessment - Common mistakes **Use when**: Explaining indicators, interpreting signals, or educating user ### `strategies.md` - DCA variations (fixed, value-based, RSI-based, ladder) - Risk management (1-2% rule, stop loss strategies) - Trend following strategies - Entry/exit strategies - Position sizing examples - Performance tracking **Use when**: Planning trades, explaining strategies, or risk management questions ## Trading Guidance ### For Conservative Traders **DCA Approach**: - Start with weekly or monthly purchases - Fixed amount: $50-200 per purchase - Duration: 6-12 months minimum - Don't try to time the market - Accumulate and hold long-term **Risk Management**: - No leverage - 50%+ of account in cash/stablecoins - Risk 1% per trade maximum - Only trade with 3+ confirmations - Stop losses always active ### For Moderate Risk Traders **Enhanced DCA**: - Adjust amounts based on RSI (buy more when oversold) - Use technical analysis for better entries - 60-70% DCA, 30-40% active trading - Risk 2% per trade on active positions **Position Trading**: - Wait for confluence of indicators - Use position_sizer.py for every trade - Risk:Reward ratio minimum 2:1 - Trail stops as profit grows ### Red Flags (Don't Trade) - RSI >70 and rising (overbought) - Low volume breakout (likely false) - Against major trend (don't short bull market) - Multiple indicators conflicting - No clear support level for stop loss - Risk:Reward ratio <1.5:1 - During extreme fear or greed ## Response Format When user asks for analysis: 1. **Current State**: Price, trend, key levels 2. **Technical View**: Indicator readings and what they mean 3. **Sentiment**: Whale activity, volume, market pressure 4. **Recommendation**: Buy/wait/sell with reasoning 5. **Risk Management**: Position size, stop loss, take profit if applicable 6. **Caveats**: What could go wrong, alternative scenarios Always include: - Specific numbers (don't just say "oversold", say "RSI at 28") - Risk warnings for trades - Clear next steps - Timeframe context (day trade vs swing trade vs long-term) ## Important Notes ### API Access - All scripts use Binance public API (no authentication needed for data) - Respect rate limits (built into scripts) - If API blocked by geo-restrictions, scripts will error gracefully ### Limitations - **No trading execution**: These tools are for research only - **No real-time WebSocket**: Data is snapshot-based (REST API) - **No futures-specific features**: Primarily spot market focused (except funding rates) - **No backtesting engine**: Manual strategy evaluation ### Authentication Required For - Placing orders - Checking account balance - Viewing open orders - Accessing trade history **Note**: Guide users to Binance API documentation (see `references/binance-api.md`) for authenticated trading setup. ## Error Handling If script fails: 1. Check internet connection 2. Verify symbol format (uppercase, e.g., BTCUSDT not btc-usdt) 3. Check if Binance API accessible in user's location 4. Verify script path and Python availability 5. Check for typos in parameters Common errors: - **HTTP 451**: API blocked in location (suggest VPN) - **Invalid symbol**: Check symbol exists on Binance - **Rate limit**: Wait 60 seconds and retry - **Connection timeout**: Network issue or API down ## Best Practices 1. **Always show your work**: Display the command you ran 2. **Interpret results**: Don't just dump data, explain what it means 3. **Context matters**: Different advice for day trade vs DCA accumulation 4. **Risk first**: Mention risk management before entry signals 5. **Be honest**: If indicators conflict, say so 6. **Update knowledge**: If market conditions changed, acknowledge it 7. **No predictions**: Frame as "if X then Y", not "X will happen" 8. **Show alternatives**: Bull and bear case scenarios ## Skill Maintenance ### Testing Run each script monthly to ensure API compatibility: ```bash python3 scripts/binance_market.py --symbol BTCUSDT --help python3 scripts/technical_analysis.py --help python3 scripts/dca_calculator.py --help python3 scripts/position_sizer.py --help python3 scripts/market_scanner.py --help python3 scripts/whale_tracker.py --help ``` ### Updates Needed If - Binance changes API endpoints - New technical indicators requested - Additional risk management tools needed - User feedback suggests improvements --- **Remember**: This skill helps users make informed decisions. It does not make decisions for them. Always emphasize personal responsibility and risk disclosure.