技能列表

Trades monotonicity violations in esports Total Kills O/U market ladders on Polymarket. Each esports match spawns multiple kill total thresholds that must be monotonically decreasing — when they are not, it is structural arbitrage. Sizes by conviction with violation magnitude scaling.

Trades distribution-sum violations in chess tournament winner markets on Polymarket. Player winner probabilities must sum to ~100% — when the field total deviates beyond threshold, individual player markets are structurally mispriced.

Trades weekly cyclical patterns in geopolitical prediction markets. Military operations spike Mon-Thu, diplomacy clusters around working days, and weekend staleness creates Monday repricing opportunities. Combines day-of-week timing with conviction-based sizing.

Trades mean reversion on geopolitical markets pushed to probability extremes by breaking news. Markets at >92% or <8% with long time horizons systematically over-react and revert. Combines overreaction bias detection with staleness factor (days-to-resolution) for conviction sizing.

Trades temporal inconsistencies across geopolitical markets with different deadlines. When P(event by later date) < P(event by earlier date), the later-deadline market is underpriced — a mathematical tautology violation. Also detects diplomacy-vs-escalation inversions within the same conflict.

HFT Market Making bot for Polymarket. Live execution via Web3 and CLOB API.

Trades cross-market constraint violations in tennis Set 1 Games O/U, Match Games O/U, Total Sets O/U, Set Handicap, and Set/Match Winner bundles on Polymarket. Match total always exceeds Set 1 total so P(Match O/U X OVER) must be >= P(Set 1 O/U X OVER) and Total Sets O/U 2.5 constrains set handicap pricing. Violations are structural arbitrage sized by conviction.

Trades structural arbitrage between Overwatch BO3 series winner markets and individual game winner markets on Polymarket. P(BO3 winner) must be mathematically consistent with P(Game 1 winner) and P(Game 2 winner) -- when it is not, individual game probabilities imply a different BO3 win probability than the market is pricing, creating a free edge that resolves mechanically.

Trades tempo inconsistencies across Dota2 and esports game props on Polymarket. Within the same game first blood timing correlates with kill pace and Ends in Daytime implies a fast stompy game with fewer total kills while rampage and ultra kill require high kill counts. When these tempo indicators contradict each other it is a structural mispricing sized by conviction.

Trades bundle inconsistencies across correlated Dota 2 match props on Polymarket. A single match spawns 28+ prop markets (kills O/U, roshan, barracks, rampage, first blood, ultra kill, daytime) that are fundamentally correlated -- high-kill games have more roshan fights, more barracks destroyed, more rampages. When one prop implies high action but another implies low, this skill detects the inconsistency and trades the outlier toward the action-score consensus. Conviction scales with inconsisten

Trades structural inconsistencies between Dota 2 BO3 winner, individual game winners, and game handicap markets on Polymarket. P(BO3 win) must equal f(P(Game1), P(Game2), P(Game3)) and P(handicap -1.5) must equal P(win both games). When these constraints are violated, it is structural arbitrage sized by conviction.

Trades CS2 BO3 Winner markets when individual map winner probabilities imply a different BO3 outcome on Polymarket. Uses the binomial BO3 model to calculate implied win probability from Map 1, Map 2, and Map 3 prices, then trades the BO3 market when it diverges beyond a minimum violation threshold. Conviction-based sizing scales with the magnitude of the map-vs-BO3 disagreement.