技能列表

Trades crypto hourly Up/Down markets when sub-interval consensus disagrees with the hourly price on Polymarket. BTC/ETH/SOL 5-min interval markets within the same hour must be consistent with the hourly Up/Down market -- when majority sub-intervals show Up bias but the hourly is priced low, or vice versa, the hourly is mispriced. Conviction-based sizing scales with disagreement magnitude.

Fades strong directional crypto moves on Polymarket 5-minute interval markets. After 3+ consecutive high-conviction same-direction intervals (>58% probability), the next interval tends to mean-revert -- a well-documented microstructure effect in crypto. Targets BTC, ETH, and SOL Up or Down bundles with conviction-based position sizing scaled by streak strength.

Trades cross-coin divergence in 5-minute crypto Up/Down bundles on Polymarket. BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP move together in practice -- when one coin diverges from the group consensus in the same 5-min window, it is likely to revert. Sizes by conviction with divergence magnitude scaling.

Trades BTC "Up or Down" 5-minute interval markets on Polymarket by detecting streaks of 3+ consecutive same-direction intervals and trading mean-reversion on the next interval. Exploits negative autocorrelation in BTC 5-min microstructure returns where retail momentum chasers systematically overprice streak continuation. Conviction scales with streak length beyond minimum threshold.

Analyze Polymarket prediction markets for trading edges. Pair Cost arbitrage, whale tracking, sentiment analysis, momentum signals, user profile tracking. No execution.

Trades mispricings in weather temperature-bin markets by reconstructing the implied probability distribution across bins for the same city and date, detecting sum violations (bins not summing to 100%) and monotonicity breaks on cumulative markets. Covers 14 cities including Munich, Dallas, Seoul, Miami, NYC, and more.

Trades structural mispricings in sports over/under markets by reconstructing the implied probability curve across multiple O/U line values for the same game and detecting monotonicity violations and set-vs-match inconsistencies in tennis.

Trades structural mispricings in crypto price-threshold markets by reconstructing the implied probability distribution curve across multiple strike levels and detecting mathematical violations such as monotonicity breaks and range-sum inconsistencies.

Trades mispricings in precipitation-range markets by reconstructing the implied probability distribution across bins for the same city and period, detecting sum violations (bins not summing to 100%) and monotonicity breaks on cumulative "more than X inches" markets. Covers cities like Seattle, Portland, Denver, Chicago, Miami, and more.

Trades NBA player prop mispricings on Polymarket by detecting cross-stat consistency or divergence for the same player (Points, Rebounds, Assists O/U) and identifying outlier stats that disagree with the consensus direction.

Trades structural inconsistencies across correlated NBA game markets on Polymarket by grouping moneyline, spread, O/U (full-game and 1H), and 1H moneyline markets for the same game and detecting cross-market mispricings including monotonicity violations, 1H-vs-full divergences, and spread-moneyline directional conflicts.

Trades logical inconsistencies in geopolitical event clusters on Polymarket. Geopolitical markets form clusters where probabilities must satisfy constraints — strike-count markets are cumulative (P(7) <= P(6)), daily military action across regions should correlate, and prerequisite events constrain downstream markets. When these constraints are violated, the mispriced market reverts. This skill detects violations and trades the correction, sizing by conviction.