技能列表

Trades structural mispricings in equity/stock price-threshold markets by reconstructing the implied probability curve across strike levels for the same company and period, detecting monotonicity breaks and range-sum inconsistencies in strike ladders for PLTR, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, SpaceX, Nasdaq-100, and other equity markets.

Trades cross-asset correlation divergences in 5-minute crypto "Up or Down" markets on Polymarket. When BTC, ETH, SOL, DOGE, XRP, and BNB have overlapping time windows, highly correlated assets should move together. A divergence (e.g., BTC Up at 55% but ETH Down at 55% in the same 5-min slot) almost always corrects. This skill detects the outlier and trades it toward the group consensus, sizing by conviction.

Trades mispricings in weather temperature-bin markets by reconstructing the implied probability distribution across bins for the same city and date, detecting sum violations (bins not summing to 100%) and monotonicity breaks on cumulative markets. Covers 14 cities including Munich, Dallas, Seoul, Miami, NYC, and more.

Trades structural mispricings in sports over/under markets by reconstructing the implied probability curve across multiple O/U line values for the same game and detecting monotonicity violations and set-vs-match inconsistencies in tennis.

Trades structural mispricings in crypto price-threshold markets by reconstructing the implied probability distribution curve across multiple strike levels and detecting mathematical violations such as monotonicity breaks and range-sum inconsistencies.

Trades mispricings in precipitation-range markets by reconstructing the implied probability distribution across bins for the same city and period, detecting sum violations (bins not summing to 100%) and monotonicity breaks on cumulative "more than X inches" markets. Covers cities like Seattle, Portland, Denver, Chicago, Miami, and more.

Trades NBA player prop mispricings on Polymarket by detecting cross-stat consistency or divergence for the same player (Points, Rebounds, Assists O/U) and identifying outlier stats that disagree with the consensus direction.

Trades structural inconsistencies across correlated NBA game markets on Polymarket by grouping moneyline, spread, O/U (full-game and 1H), and 1H moneyline markets for the same game and detecting cross-market mispricings including monotonicity violations, 1H-vs-full divergences, and spread-moneyline directional conflicts.

Trades logical inconsistencies in geopolitical event clusters on Polymarket. Geopolitical markets form clusters where probabilities must satisfy constraints — strike-count markets are cumulative (P(7) <= P(6)), daily military action across regions should correlate, and prerequisite events constrain downstream markets. When these constraints are violated, the mispriced market reverts. This skill detects violations and trades the correction, sizing by conviction.

Trades structural mispricings in equity/stock price-threshold markets by reconstructing the implied probability curve across strike levels for the same company and period, detecting monotonicity breaks and range-sum inconsistencies in strike ladders for PLTR, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, SpaceX, Nasdaq-100, and other equity markets.

Trades cross-asset correlation divergences in 5-minute crypto "Up or Down" markets on Polymarket. When BTC, ETH, SOL, DOGE, XRP, and BNB have overlapping time windows, highly correlated assets should move together. A divergence (e.g., BTC Up at 55% but ETH Down at 55% in the same 5-min slot) almost always corrects. This skill detects the outlier and trades it toward the group consensus, sizing by conviction.

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